Smallpox was fully eliminated in the 1970s, and polio and guinea worm are nearly eradicated with fewer than 100 cases per year.
Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Judge as of 2015-08-17 using WHO/Carter Center figures available then (2014 to mid-2015 case counts). Three parts: (1) smallpox was eradicated in the 1970s (last natural case 1977); (2) polio had fewer than 100 cases a year; (3) guinea worm had fewer than 100 cases a year. True: all three hold. Mostly true: all hold in substance, but one count is slightly above 100 (up to about 150), or only wild poliovirus is counted while vaccine-derived cases are excluded. Mixed: one of the three parts is clearly wrong, e.g. a recent annual count is well above 100. Mostly false: two parts are wrong. False: all are wrong, or smallpox was not eliminated in the 1970s.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (3)
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E1 Smallpox World Health Organization · 28 June 2016
“The last known natural case was in Somalia in 1977. Since then, the only known cases were caused by a laboratory accident in 1978 in Birmingham, England, which killed one person and caused a limited outbreak. Smallpox was officially declared eradicated in 1979.”
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E2 Progress Toward Polio Eradication — Worldwide, 2014–2015 CDC MMWR (with WHO co-authors) · 22 May 2015
“In 2014, a total of 359 WPV cases were reported in nine countries worldwide (6).”
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E3 Progress Toward Polio Eradication — Worldwide, 2014–2015 CDC MMWR (with WHO co-authors) · 22 May 2015
“During January 1–March 30, 2015, the low poliovirus transmission season, as of May 5, a total of 23 cases had been reported worldwide (22 from Pakistan, and one from Afghanistan).”
Reasoning
E1 (WHO) confirms the smallpox part: the last natural case was in Somalia in 1977 and eradication was declared in 1979. E2 (CDC MMWR with WHO co-authors) reports 359 wild poliovirus cases in 2014, so polio was clearly not below 100 cases a year. The partial 2015 count of 23 cases in E3 covers only the low transmission season and does not change that. None of the evidence gives guinea worm case counts, so that part cannot be checked; with one part confirmed and one clearly wrong, the verdict is mixed.
Cite this claim
Dario Amodei, “Smallpox was fully eliminated in the 1970s, and polio and guinea worm are nearly eradicated with fewer than 100 cases per year.” (said 17 August 2015). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_ece9944becf0, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_ece9944becf0
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
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