ClaimsWarren Buffett

“we’re running a-- federal deficit that’s nine percent of G.D.P.”

Warren Buffett, Berkshire chairman 23 September 2010 CNBC Transcript: Becky Quick speaks with Warren Buffett (CNBC) archived copy

Factual Economics and markets

The US federal deficit in 2010 is about nine percent of GDP.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge said mostly true; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judged as of 23 September 2010, using the US federal deficit as a share of GDP for the current fiscal year (FY2010) or the year just ended (FY2009), as reported by the CBO, OMB historical tables or the Treasury. True: the figure is between about 8.5% and 9.5% of GDP. Mostly true: the figure is between 8% and 10%. Mixed: the figure for one relevant year is about 9% but the other is clearly different, or the figure is about 9% only on a different measure (for example a calendar year or a narrower deficit). Mostly false: the figure is between 6.5% and 8%, or between 10% and 11.5%. False: the figure is below 6.5% or above 11.5%.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020 Congressional Budget Office · 26 January 2010

    “At 9.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), that deficit would be slightly smaller than the shortfall of 9.9 percent of GDP ($1.4 trillion) posted in 2009.”
  2. E2 October Monthly Budget Review Congressional Budget Office · 7 October 2009

    “Relative to the size of the economy, the 2009 deficit was equal to 9.9 percent of GDP (the highest since 1945), compared with 3.2 percent in 2008.”
  3. E3 The Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update Congressional Budget Office · 18 August 2010

    “CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit for 2010 will exceed $1.3 trillion—$71 billion below last year's total and $27 billion lower than the amount that CBO projected in March 2010, when it issued its previous estimate.”
  4. E4 The Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update Congressional Budget Office · 18 August 2010

    “Outlays are expected to total $3.5 trillion this year, or nearly 24 percent of GDP—a level slightly lower than the 25 percent share recorded last year”

Reasoning

In January 2010 the CBO projected the FY2010 deficit at 9.2 percent of GDP (E1). That is inside the 8.5–9.5% band the criteria set for true. The CBO put the FY2009 deficit at 9.9 percent of GDP (E1, E2), which falls in the mostly-true range and is close to the FY2010 figure, not clearly different from it. The quoted sentence from the CBO's August 2010 update gives the FY2010 deficit in dollars, at more than $1.3 trillion, which is $71 billion below the 2009 total and $27 billion below the March 2010 estimate (E3). That dollar figure is slightly below earlier totals, but the quoted evidence does not express it as a share of GDP.

Cite this claim

Warren Buffett, “The US federal deficit in 2010 is about nine percent of GDP.” (said 23 September 2010). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_eacaf5a298d4, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_eacaf5a298d4

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

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All of them

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