On 1 January 2018 Rodney Brooks published predictions about self driving cars, AI and machine learning, and the space industry.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
True if a dated post on Brooks's blog (rodneybrooks.com), dated 1 January 2018, sets out predictions covering self-driving cars, AI and machine learning, and the space industry. Mostly true if the post exists with all three topics but is dated within a day or two of 1 January 2018. Mixed if it covers only some of the three topics. Mostly false if the predictions were published but at a clearly different date, e.g. a different month or year. False if no such prediction post by Brooks exists around that time.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (3)
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E1 My Dated Predictions Rodney Brooks (rodneybrooks.com) · 1 January 2018 Own record
“It is the New Year and there will be many predictions about what will happen in the coming year. I am going to take this opportunity to make predictions myself”
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E2 My Dated Predictions Rodney Brooks (rodneybrooks.com) · 1 January 2018 Own record
“So here are my predictions about space travel. Not as optimistic as wish I could be. But, realistic, I think.”
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E3 Our Robotic Future: The Next 11 Important Steps Newsweek (article by James Pethokoukis, AEI columnist) · 11 January 2018
“In a recent blog post, Brooks made a number of predictions about these technologies, assigning a date to each forecast”
Reasoning
The evidence shows a Brooks post dated 2018-01-01 with New Year predictions, including a section on space travel [E1][E2]. No evidence item shows that the post covers self-driving cars or AI/ML, and the independent article [E3] does not name the topics or give the post's date. So the evidence does not settle the claim under the criteria.
Cite this claim
Rodney Brooks, “On 1 January 2018 Rodney Brooks published predictions about self driving cars, AI and machine learning, and the space industry.” (said 1 January 2020). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_ea9c3595c13c, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_ea9c3595c13c
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More factual claims by Rodney Brooks
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Mostly true
“But no, I had no idea it would be LLMs at the time of my correct prediction that something big would appear.”
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Mostly true
“I have spent my whole professional life developing robots and my companies have built more of them than anyone else”
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Resolved true
“I bought my first electric car this year.”
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Mixed
“they are safe in the presence of humans.”
The warehouse mobile robots built by Brooks's current startup are safe in the presence of humans.
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Mostly true
“I have reported about particular rides, that I or others have taken, when I think that the vehicles have done something for which a human driver would somehow be sanctioned if they had done the same…”
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