ClaimsRodney Brooks

“On January 1st, 2018, I made predictions (here) about self driving cars, Artificial Intelligence and machine learning, and about progress in the space industry.”

Rodney Brooks, blog author 1 January 2020 Predictions Scorecard, 2020 January 01 (rodneybrooks.com) archived copy

Factual Their own work or organisation

On 1 January 2018 Rodney Brooks published predictions about self driving cars, AI and machine learning, and the space industry.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

True if a dated post on Brooks's blog (rodneybrooks.com), dated 1 January 2018, sets out predictions covering self-driving cars, AI and machine learning, and the space industry. Mostly true if the post exists with all three topics but is dated within a day or two of 1 January 2018. Mixed if it covers only some of the three topics. Mostly false if the predictions were published but at a clearly different date, e.g. a different month or year. False if no such prediction post by Brooks exists around that time.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (3)

  1. E1 My Dated Predictions Rodney Brooks (rodneybrooks.com) · 1 January 2018 Own record

    “It is the New Year and there will be many predictions about what will happen in the coming year. I am going to take this opportunity to make predictions myself”
  2. E2 My Dated Predictions Rodney Brooks (rodneybrooks.com) · 1 January 2018 Own record

    “So here are my predictions about space travel. Not as optimistic as wish I could be. But, realistic, I think.”
  3. E3 Our Robotic Future: The Next 11 Important Steps Newsweek (article by James Pethokoukis, AEI columnist) · 11 January 2018

    “In a recent blog post, Brooks made a number of predictions about these technologies, assigning a date to each forecast”

Reasoning

The evidence shows a Brooks post dated 2018-01-01 with New Year predictions, including a section on space travel [E1][E2]. No evidence item shows that the post covers self-driving cars or AI/ML, and the independent article [E3] does not name the topics or give the post's date. So the evidence does not settle the claim under the criteria.

Cite this claim

Rodney Brooks, “On 1 January 2018 Rodney Brooks published predictions about self driving cars, AI and machine learning, and the space industry.” (said 1 January 2020). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_ea9c3595c13c, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_ea9c3595c13c

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Rodney Brooks, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Rodney Brooks

  1. Mostly true Factual 1 January 2026
    “But no, I had no idea it would be LLMs at the time of my correct prediction that something big would appear.”

    When Brooks predicted in 2018 that something big would appear in AI, he did not know it would be LLMs.

  2. Mostly true Factual 1 January 2024
    “I have spent my whole professional life developing robots and my companies have built more of them than anyone else”

    Brooks has spent his whole professional life developing robots, and his companies have built more robots than anyone else's.

  3. Resolved true Factual 1 January 2024
    “I bought my first electric car this year.”

    Brooks bought his first electric car in 2023.

  4. Mixed Factual 21 October 2023
    “they are safe in the presence of humans.”

    The warehouse mobile robots built by Brooks's current startup are safe in the presence of humans.

  5. Mostly true Factual 21 October 2023
    “I have reported about particular rides, that I or others have taken, when I think that the vehicles have done something for which a human driver would somehow be sanctioned if they had done the same…”

    Brooks said he has reported on particular autonomous vehicle rides, his or others', when he thought the vehicles had done something for which a human driver would somehow be sanctioned.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.