Published numbers for flu deaths are likely overestimates.

Judge as of 2020-05-04 against the main published figures for flu deaths, chiefly the CDC's annual US estimates (for example about 34,000–61,000 deaths a season). True: peer-reviewed or authoritative analyses available then or later show that these published figures are systematically higher than the true number of flu deaths. Mostly true: the evidence shows the figures overstate the deaths directly caused by flu (for example because modelled excess deaths include deaths where flu only contributed) and this overstatement is substantive, though disputed. Mixed: experts are genuinely split, with credible evidence both that the figures overstate and that they are reasonable or understate. Mostly false: the figures are only shown to be model-based estimates that cannot be directly compared with death-certificate counts, which is a real point but does not show they are too high. False: authoritative analyses show the estimates are accurate or are underestimates.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Estimating Influenza-Associated Deaths in the United States PubMed Central (American Journal of Public Health reprint) · 11 June 2009

   “Doshi's estimates of influenza deaths are lower than estimates produced by the CDC and other groups primarily because he used a narrow outcome and did not use statistical models developed to more accurately estimate the total number of influenza-associated deaths.”

2. E2 Annual estimates of the burden of seasonal influenza in the United States: A tool for strengthening influenza surveillance and preparedness Influenza Other Respi Viruses (journal) · 14 February 2018

   “Estimates of excess deaths related to influenza were based on a statistical model of the weekly number of deaths obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics.”

3. E3 Influenza: cause or excuse? An analysis of flu's influence on worsening mortality trends in England and Wales, 2010–19 Oxford Academic (British Medical Bulletin) · 13 March 2024

   “This includes decomposition analyses that show influenza per se did not contribute significantly to the deteriorating trends in life expectancy.”

E2 says lower influenza death counts, such as Doshi's, differ from the CDC figures mainly because they use a narrow outcome and skip the statistical models built to estimate total influenza-associated deaths more accurately. E3 confirms the CDC estimates come from a statistical model of excess deaths, but it does not show the figures are systematically too high. E4 concerns flu's role in mortality trends in England and Wales, not whether US flu death estimates are inflated. The evidence fits the "mostly false" criterion: the figures are model-based estimates that can't be directly compared with death-certificate counts, but nothing here shows they are overestimates.