In 2024, 53% of Berkshire's 189 operating businesses reported a decline in earnings, yet Berkshire did better than Buffett expected.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
The claim has two parts: (a) 189 operating businesses, of which 53% reported lower 2024 earnings; (b) Berkshire did better in 2024 than Buffett expected. Part (b) is Buffett's account of his own expectations, so it holds if his letter says so and Berkshire's 2024 results do not plainly contradict it (for example, a sharp fall in operating earnings he had not called a disappointment). True: Berkshire's records give 189 businesses and 53% (rounded) with lower earnings, and (b) holds. Mostly true: (b) holds and one of the numbers is off by a little (the share by 1–3 points, or the count by a few businesses). Mixed: one part holds and the other clearly does not, or the share was well away from 53% but still about half. Mostly false: both numbers are clearly wrong but there is still a real decline among a large minority of businesses. False: the official records show a materially different count or share (for example, most businesses had higher earnings), or contradict (b).
Set before the research began.
Evidence (3)
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E1 Takeaways From Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 Earnings And Buffett’s Letter Forbes (contributor Bill Stone) · 23 February 2025
“This was all despite 53% of Berkshire’s 189 operating companies seeing earnings declines in 2024.”
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E2 Takeaways From Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 Earnings And Buffett’s Letter Forbes (contributor Bill Stone) · 23 February 2025
“Operating earnings for 2024 rose 27% compared to 2023.”
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E3 annual letters Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Own record
“These 189 subsidiaries have similarities to marketable common stocks but are far from identical.”
Reasoning
An independent Forbes report on Berkshire's 2024 results and letter states that 53% of Berkshire's 189 operating companies had earnings declines in 2024 [E4]. Buffett's 2024 letter also refers to 189 subsidiaries [E6]. On part (b), Forbes reports that 2024 operating earnings rose 27% over 2023 [E5]. That does not contradict Buffett's statement that Berkshire did better than he expected. Both parts of the claim are therefore supported.
Cite this claim
Warren Buffett, “In 2024, 53% of Berkshire's 189 operating businesses reported a decline in earnings, yet Berkshire did better than Buffett expected.” (said 2025). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_e87116ea8e9e, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_e87116ea8e9e
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
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