ClaimsTyler Cowen

“I haven't seen one of the slams on Arthur Laffer mention that the UK used to have marginal tax rates of 102 percent and also 95 percent”

Tyler Cowen, writing on X 2 June 2019 Post by @tylercowen on X, 2019-06-02 (X)

Factual Economics and markets

The UK used to have marginal tax rates of 102 percent and 95 percent.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

True: historical UK tax records show a top marginal rate of about 95% at some point (for example 1970s earned income including surcharge, or wartime) and an effective marginal rate of about 102% (for example 1940s income tax plus surtax, or the 1970s investment income surcharge combined with other charges). Mostly true: both rates existed, but in a slightly different form (for example combined effective rates rather than a single statutory rate), or one figure is slightly off (such as 98% instead of 102%). Mixed: only one of the two rates is supported. Mostly false: the rates were never reached as stated, but similar high rates existed (for example 83–98%). False: UK marginal rates never approached these levels.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 History of taxation in the United Kingdom - Wikipedia Wikipedia · 12 January 2011

    “With the investment income surcharge, this raised the top rate on investment income to 98% – the highest permanent rate since the war.”
  2. E2 History of taxation in the United Kingdom - Wikipedia Wikipedia · 12 January 2011

    “The highest rate of income tax peaked in the Second World War at 99.25%.”
  3. E3 History of taxation in the United Kingdom - Wikipedia Wikipedia · 12 January 2011

    “A surcharge of 15% kept the top rate on investment income at 90%.”
  4. E4 Income Tax and Top Incomes over the Twentieth Century Hacienda Pública Española / Revista de Economía Pública (Instituto de Estudios Fiscales), by A. B. Atkinson, Nuffield College, Oxford · 2004

    “The top rate on investment income in the UK was cut from 98% to 75% in 1979, from 75% to 60% in 1984, and from 60% to 40% in 1988.”

Reasoning

The evidence documents top UK rates of 98% on investment income [E1][E4] and 99.25% in the Second World War [E2], close to the 102% figure, but no evidence item documents a 95% rate. The evidence therefore cannot settle whether both rates existed (mostly true) or only one is supported (mixed).

Cite this claim

Tyler Cowen, “The UK used to have marginal tax rates of 102 percent and 95 percent.” (said 2 June 2019). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_e1c88a1ae45c, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_e1c88a1ae45c

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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All of them

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