Andreessen said he thought the rate of AI technological improvement from mid-2023 onward would be very rapid.

The claim is that AI technology would improve 'very rapidly' from mid-2023 onward, judged over the following one to three years. TRUE: authoritative trackers document large, fast gains in AI capability after mid-2023, such as major benchmark jumps, frequent stronger frontier model releases, and steep cost-per-capability declines. Suitable trackers include the Stanford AI Index and Epoch AI. MOSTLY TRUE: improvement was clearly rapid on most measures, with a slowdown in some areas. MIXED: the evidence is split, with rapid gains on some measures and a notable plateau on others. MOSTLY FALSE: improvement continued, but at a modest pace widely described as slowing or plateauing. FALSE: AI capability largely stagnated after mid-2023.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Trends in AI Epoch AI · 5 February 2026

   “Following the introduction of the first reasoning models (OpenAI’s o1-mini and o1-preview) in September 2024, the Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) frontier has advanced linearly by 14 points per year, compared with 6 points per year for non-reasoning models.”

2. E2 AI capabilities have steadily improved over the past year Epoch AI · 30 September 2025

   “Across benchmarks measuring skills in research-level math, agentic coding, visual understanding, common sense reasoning, and more, AI capabilities have grown rapidly and consistently over the last 12 months.”

3. E3 Trends in AI Epoch AI · 5 February 2026

   “Gains have come in spurts as spending shifts to each new chip generation — price-performance was nearly flat through mid-2024, then roughly doubled as Blackwell chips grew to a majority of new spending.”

4. E4 Epoch AI Data Show a 99.5% Drop in Prices at a Fixed MMLU Threshold | EconoTimes EconoTimes · 4 November 2026

   “Epoch AI lists GPT-4-0314 at $37.50 per 1 million tokens on Mar. 14, 2023, with an MMLU score of 86.0. Its listing for Gemini 2.0 Flash shows $0.18 per 1 million tokens on Feb. 5, 2025, and a score of 88.0.”

Epoch AI, an independent tracker, reports that AI capabilities grew "rapidly and consistently" over a 12-month period across benchmarks in research-level math, agentic coding, visual understanding and common sense reasoning, among others (E2). It also reports that the frontier of its capabilities index rose by 14 points per year after reasoning models arrived in September 2024 (E1). Epoch's listed prices show the cost of reaching a fixed MMLU score falling from $37.50 to $0.18 per million tokens between March 2023 and February 2025 (E4), which is a steep drop in cost per capability. Epoch also notes that chip price-performance was nearly flat through mid-2024 before jumping later (E3), so progress was uneven in that area, which fits the criteria for mostly true.