ClaimsBill Ackman

“Last summer, we built large notional short positions in the Chinese yuan through the purchase of puts and put spreads in order to protect the portfolio in the event of unanticipated weakness in the Chinese economy.”

Bill Ackman, Pershing Square letter January 2016 Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Annual Investor Letter (2015 letter) (GuruFocus)

Factual Economics and markets

In summer 2015 Pershing Square built large notional short positions in the Chinese yuan through puts and put spreads.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The evidence is the person's or their organisation's own records.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Judge against Pershing Square's own records for 2015. TRUE: Pershing Square Holdings' 2015 annual report, investor letters or financial statements show that during summer 2015 (roughly June to September) the funds bought yuan (CNY/CNH) puts and/or put spreads that gave a large notional short exposure to the yuan, described as a hedge. MOSTLY TRUE: the yuan put position existed and was large, but the timing was slightly off (for example it began in late spring or extended into autumn), or the instruments differed in a minor way (for example only puts, or only put spreads). MOSTLY FALSE: Pershing held a yuan hedge, but it was small, was built mainly outside 2015, or used materially different instruments. FALSE: the records show no yuan short or put position in 2015.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (7)

  1. E1 Pershing Square Holdings 2015 Interim Financial Statement letter (Investment Manager's Report) Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. (subject's own domain) Own record

    “As a result, we have made no meaningful recent changes to our current portfolio holdings other than the addition of greater notional short currency exposure principally through the purchase of put options.”
  2. E2 Pershing Square Holdings 2015 Interim Financial Statement letter (Investment Manager's Report) Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. (subject's own domain) Own record

    “we own large notional currency hedges that should serve to protect the portfolio somewhat in the event of continued declines in certain currencies to which the funds are exposed directly or indirectly.”
  3. E3 Pershing Square Holdings 2015 Annual Report (letter excerpt, Foreign Currency section) Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. (subject's own domain) Own record

    “We also purchase put options on currencies to hedge certain macro or other concerns. These options typically represent a modest percentage of our investment capital, but represent large notional exposures.”
  4. E4 UNAUDITED CONDENSED INTERIM FINANCIAL STATEMENTS Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. Own record

    “As a result, we have made no meaningful recent changes to our current portfolio holdings other than the addition of greater notional short currency exposure principally through the purchase of put options.”
  5. E5 UNAUDITED CONDENSED INTERIM FINANCIAL STATEMENTS Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. Own record

    “While we do not attempt to hedge the impact of short-term stock market declines, we own large notional currency hedges that should serve to protect the portfolio somewhat in the event of continued declines in certain currencies to which the funds are exposed directly or indirectly.”
  6. E6 PSH-Annual-Report-12.31.151.pdf Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. Own record

    “We also purchase put options on currencies to hedge certain macro or other concerns. These options typically represent a modest percentage of our investment capital, but represent large notional exposures.”
  7. E7 UNAUDITED CONDENSED INTERIM FINANCIAL STATEMENTS Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. Own record

    “we do not believe that stock market and commodity price declines, currency devaluation, and/or economic weakness in China will have a material impact on the intrinsic value of the portfolio.”

Reasoning

Pershing Square's 2015 interim letter for the period ending June 30, 2015 says the funds added greater notional short currency exposure, mainly by buying put options, and describes these as large notional currency hedges (E2, E3, E5, E6). The 2015 annual report says currency puts are bought as macro hedges and represent large notional exposures (E4, E7). None of the quoted passages names the Chinese yuan as the hedged currency. E8 mentions currency devaluation and economic weakness in China only in general terms. The criteria require the records to show yuan puts or put spreads, and the evidence does not settle that.

Cite this claim

Bill Ackman, “In summer 2015 Pershing Square built large notional short positions in the Chinese yuan through puts and put spreads.” (said January 2016). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_dbbd538d77f6, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_dbbd538d77f6

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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