ClaimsMarc Andreessen

“I expect this essay to be the target of criticism.”

Marc Andreessen, a16z co-founder, essay author 18 April 2020 It's Time to Build (a16z) archived copy

Prediction Their own work or organisation

The essay "It's Time to Build" will be the target of criticism.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

The claim is that the essay 'It's Time to Build' (published 18 April 2020) would be criticised. TRUE: published commentary (op-eds, articles, essays, or widely covered public responses by identifiable commentators) explicitly criticises the essay. MOSTLY TRUE: criticism exists but is sparse, e.g., only a few minor pieces. MOSTLY FALSE: the only negative reactions are passing, low-profile remarks with no substantive critique published. FALSE: the essay's documented reception shows it was received essentially without criticism. Positive coverage alongside criticism does not reduce the verdict.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 What bugs me about @pmarca's 'Time to Build' essay Jerry Brito blog · 22 April 2020

    “And this is why I felt vexed by Andreessen’s essay. Because he does not give even a hint of how we might solve that problem, and that left me cold.”

  2. E2 For Whom Shall We Build? The New Atlantis · 8 January 2025

    “But Andreessen’s diagnosis of the problem at times mistakes the deepest roots of our lethargy, and therefore undersells his case for the future.”

  3. E3 How, What, and Where to Build Contraptions (Venkatesh Rao) · 24 April 2020

    “What’s interesting to note is that unlike the SWEW, ITTB has had a very divided reception, which to me is an indication of the stage of the historical building cycle we’re in more than the specifics of what Marc is arguing.”

  4. E4 Billionaire Marc ‘It's Time to Build’ Andreesen Is a NIMBY Vice · 5 August 2022

    “It’s clear that Andreessen was serious when he said it’s time to build, but only what he wants, when he wants, and how he wants.”

Reasoning

Several identifiable commentators published direct criticism of the essay. Jerry Brito wrote that the essay "left me cold" because it offered no hint of how to solve the problem (E1). The New Atlantis argued that Andreessen's diagnosis "mistakes the deepest roots of our lethargy" (E2), and Vice criticised him in direct reference to the essay's slogan (E4). Venkatesh Rao also described the essay's reception as "very divided" (E3). This meets the TRUE criterion of published commentary explicitly criticising the essay.

Cite this claim

Marc Andreessen, “The essay "It's Time to Build" will be the target of criticism.” (said 18 April 2020). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_da91ca553f20, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_da91ca553f20

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More prediction claims by Marc Andreessen

  1. Mostly true Prediction 26 January 2025
    “They’re going to do as much as they can through executive orders, and then they’re going to do legislation and regulatory changes for the rest.”

    The incoming Trump administration will do as much as it can through executive orders and then use legislation and regulatory changes for the rest.

  2. Resolved true Prediction 26 January 2025
    “It’s purely a question of choice, and I think the new administration’s going to do that.”

    Andreessen said energy independence and large net energy exports are a matter of choice, and that he thinks the new Trump administration will choose to pursue them.

  3. Mostly false Prediction 2 September 2023
    “they have a law that looks like it may pass as soon as October that effectively bans AI inside the Eu.”

    The EU may pass a law as soon as October 2023 that effectively bans AI inside the EU.

  4. Resolved true Prediction 2 September 2023
    “Look, you're going to have Chinese AI.”

    There will be Chinese AI systems that embody Communist ideology.

  5. Mixed Prediction 12 June 2023
    “I'm pretty confident within, call it two years, that will be a solved problem”

    Andreessen said he was pretty confident that within roughly two years of June 2023, AI systems' limited persistent memory across sessions would be a solved problem.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.