Buffett says a figure he discusses alongside driving, which was about seven or six after World War II, has come down to under two, and he credits Ralph Nader with the decline; he does not state what the figure measures or its unit.

Judged as of 4 May 2024. In context the figure is US traffic fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles travelled. True: NHTSA/FARS or historical data show a rate of about 6–7 per 100 million VMT in the years just after World War II and under 2 in recent years, and Buffett's credit to Nader is treated as his opinion (Nader's advocacy plausibly contributed through auto-safety laws). Mostly true: the numbers fit with a small slip (for example the postwar rate was about 5–8, or the recent rate is slightly above 1.3 but still under 2). Mixed: the numbers fit but the decline is mainly owed to other causes, so presenting Nader as the main cause is clearly overstated; or one of the two endpoints is wrong. Mostly false: the rate declined but both endpoints are significantly misstated. False: no fatality measure fits the 'six or seven down to under two' pattern.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 NHTSA Launches Put the Phone Away or Pay Campaign; Releases 2023 Fatality Early Estimates | NHTSA National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), U.S. Department of Transportation · 1 April 2024

   “The estimated fatality rate for 2023 decreased to 1.26 deaths per 100 million vehicle miles traveled, down from the reported rate of 1.33 per 100 million VMT in 2022.”

2. E2 2024 Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Annual Meeting Brown Advisory (notes by R. Hutchings Vernon, CFA, Senior Advisor) · 13 June 2024

   “The number of people killed in accidents per 100,000 miles driven has come way down over the years from about 15 when Buffett was young to under 2 today. Ralph Nader did more for the American consumer than just about anybody.”

E1 (NHTSA) confirms the recent endpoint: an estimated 1.26 deaths per 100 million vehicle miles traveled in 2023 and 1.33 in 2022, both under 2. None of the evidence gives the fatality rate for the years just after World War II, so the claimed figure of six or seven cannot be checked. E2 is a third-party paraphrase of Buffett's remarks. It reports Buffett's remark that the figure was about 15 when he was young and is under 2 today [E2], but it does not give the post-war figure of six or seven or any underlying data. With only one of the two endpoints shown, the evidence cannot settle the claim under the criteria.