Ebola case reports came in on paper, were put online with long delay, and were extremely inaccurate.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge said mixed; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Judge as of 2015, about the West African Ebola epidemic of 2014–15. The claim has three parts: (a) case reports were on paper; (b) they were put online with long delays; (c) they were extremely inaccurate. True: WHO, CDC or peer-reviewed accounts document all three, including substantial reporting lags and major data-quality problems (for example underreporting, duplicates, or misclassification). Mostly true: all are documented, but 'extremely inaccurate' somewhat overstates the documented quality problems. Mixed: one part is not supported, for example delays are documented but accuracy was reasonable. Mostly false: only minor delays or inaccuracies are documented. False: the evidence shows timely, accurate electronic reporting.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 Ebola Surveillance — Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone CDC, MMWR Supplements · 8 July 2016
“In addition, the huge volume of cases during summer and fall 2014 made obtaining, entering, cleaning, and verifying data on all cases particularly difficult and led to a high frequency of missing or erroneous data.”
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E2 Ebola Surveillance — Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone CDC, MMWR Supplements · 8 July 2016
“even after this change, however, substantial lags in data entry meant that these detailed data were inaccurate for current case counts and difficult to directly apply to outbreak control.”
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E3 Ebola Surveillance — Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone CDC, MMWR Supplements · 8 July 2016
“As the case-based surveillance system developed, comparisons with the aggregate case data received from telephone calls and e-mails demonstrated that the latter were inaccurate.”
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E4 Data Challenges in Disease Response: The 2014 Ebola Outbreak and Beyond ACM Journal of Data and Information Quality (authors' IBM copy) · June 2015
“For example, Meltzer et al. [2014] estimated 2.5 actual cases for every reported case.”
Reasoning
The evidence documents reporting lags and inaccurate or underreported case data [E1][E2][E3][E4]. No evidence item says the case reports were on paper, and the criteria require all three parts to be documented for a true or mostly true verdict.
Cite this claim
Bill Gates, “Ebola case reports came in on paper, were put online with long delay, and were extremely inaccurate.” (said 2015). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_d951a7695b89, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_d951a7695b89
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
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Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.