There is an unprecedented backlog in professional home improvement projects heading into 2022.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge said resolved true; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Judge as of early 2022. True if contemporaneous industry data or reports (e.g. Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, NAHB, Home Depot/Lowe's commentary on Pro customers, contractor backlog surveys) show professional/contractor home improvement project backlogs heading into 2022 were at record or historically unprecedented levels. Mostly true if backlogs were at or near record highs (e.g. highest in many years or among the highest on record) though not strictly unprecedented. Mixed if backlogs were elevated well above normal but data show comparable or higher levels in earlier periods. Mostly false if backlogs were only modestly above normal, so 'unprecedented' substantially overstates it. False if data show professional home improvement backlogs were at or below normal levels heading into 2022.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 Construction and Design Firms See Considerable Backlogs Going Into Q4 2021 Houzz (Pro blog) · 4 November 2021
“Going into the fourth quarter of 2021, backlogs at architectural and design firms are at their longest in four years, since the barometer began tracking them; the average is now 9.3 weeks, up from 4.5 weeks year over year.”
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E2 Construction and Design Firms See Considerable Backlogs Going Into Q4 2021 Houzz (Pro blog) · 4 November 2021
“Project backlogs for design and construction companies have been increasing steadily since the beginning of the pandemic and are now reaching record highs, the Houzz Renovation Barometer has found.”
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E3 Year in Review and What’s Ahead for Pros Houzz (Pro blog) · 11 January 2022
“With design and construction firms unable to keep up with demand, project backlogs gradually escalated over the year, reaching record highs.”
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E4 Remodelers Head Into 2022 With Cautious Optimism ProRemodeler (citing NAHB/Royal Building Products Remodeling Index) · 27 December 2021
“Of the two indices that measure attitudes about future conditions—sentiment regarding the rate of new leads registered 83, up five points from the third quarter of 2020, while the backlog of remodeling jobs climbed eight points year-over-year to 85.”
Reasoning
The Houzz Renovation Barometer reported that design and construction project backlogs were reaching record highs going into Q4 2021 [E2], and Houzz's January 2022 review said they escalated over 2021 to record highs [E3]. Architectural and design firm backlogs averaged 9.3 weeks, up from 4.5 weeks a year earlier [E1]. However, those backlogs were the longest only "since the barometer began tracking them" four years earlier [E1], so the record covers a short period. The NAHB/Royal Building Products remodeling backlog index rose eight points year over year to 85 [E4], which shows a strong rise, but the quote does not say it was a record. Backlogs were clearly at or near record highs, but the evidence does not fully support calling them historically "unprecedented".
Cite this claim
Bill Ackman, “There is an unprecedented backlog in professional home improvement projects heading into 2022.” (said 2022). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_d70d7907a841, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_d70d7907a841
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
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