ClaimsBill Ackman

“It’s also a business that continues to take share even during difficult economic environments.”

Bill Ackman, speaking at Ira Sohn Conference 6 June 2011 Transcript of Bill Ackman's Super Fast Speech at the Ira Sohn Conference (Insider Monkey)

Factual Economics and markets

Family Dollar continues to take market share even during difficult economic environments.

Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judged as of 6 June 2011. True: Family Dollar's sales growth or market share data show it gained share in its retail segment during difficult economic periods (e.g. 2008–2010), with comparable-store sales growth beating relevant peers or the market. Mostly true: it generally gained share during downturns, with minor exceptions in some quarters. Mixed: the share trend was flat, or gains in one downturn were offset by losses in another. Mostly false: it had some growth but lost share to competitors such as Dollar General or Walmart, so the claim overstates it. False: it clearly lost market share during difficult economic periods.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (11)

  1. E1 Dollar stores cash in Los Angeles Times · 14 May 2009

    “So-called same-store sales at Dollar General Corp., the largest of the three, rose 9.4% for the fiscal quarter that ended Jan. 30. At Family Dollar Stores Inc., the No. 2 dollar store, same-store sales rose 6.4% for the fiscal quarter that ended Feb. 28.”
  2. E2 0001193125-10-236638.txt U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Family Dollar Stores, Inc. Form 10-K)

    “Comparable store sales (stores open more than 13 months) for fiscal 2010 increased 4.8% compared with fiscal 2009.”
  3. E3 Family Dollar Stores Posts Annual Earnings of $2.62 Per Share Yahoo Sports (AOL.com story) · 29 September 2010

    “Discount retailer Family Dollar Stores Inc. (FDO) posted a better-than-expected profit jump during the fourth quarter as it continues to lure budget-conscious shoppers into its stores.”
  4. E4 Form 10-K, Family Dollar Stores, Inc., fiscal year ended August 28, 2010 U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (filed by Family Dollar Stores, Inc.)

    “Comparable store sales (stores open more than 13 months) for fiscal 2010 increased 4.8% compared with fiscal 2009.”
  5. E5 Form 10-K, Family Dollar Stores, Inc., fiscal year ended August 28, 2010 U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (filed by Family Dollar Stores, Inc.)

    “During fiscal 2010 as compared with fiscal 2009, our net sales increased 6.3% to $7.9 billion, our net income increased 23.0% to $358.1 million, and our diluted net income per common share increased 26.6% to $2.62.”
  6. E6 Form 10-K, Dollar General Corporation, fiscal year ended January 29, 2010 U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (filed by Dollar General Corporation)

    “Nonetheless, as a result of our long-term mission of serving the value-conscious customer, coupled with a vigorous focus on improving our operating and financial performance, our 2009 and 2008 financial results were strong, and we remain optimistic”
  7. E7 Form 10-K, Dollar General Corporation, fiscal year ended January 29, 2010 U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (filed by Dollar General Corporation)

    “Consumers are facing very high rates of unemployment, fluctuating food, gasoline and energy costs, rising medical costs, and a continued weakness in housing and credit markets, and the timetable for economic recovery is uncertain.”
  8. E8 Family Dollar Triumphs Over Prosperity and, as a Consequence, Recession CBS News · 13 September 2010

    “Even as the United States slid into a deeper phase of the recession, comparable store sales in consumables gained almost seven percent, carrying the retailer to an overall four-percent comp gain in the fiscal year.”
  9. E9 Family Dollar Triumphs Over Prosperity and, as a Consequence, Recession CBS News · 13 September 2010

    “However, in 2007, as gasoline and energy prices sucked up its core lower-income customer's discretionary cash, Family Dollar's comparable store sales growth slip to one percent.”
  10. E10 Family Dollar reports record Q4 earnings - Fibre2Fashion Fibre2Fashion · 4 October 2008

    “As previously reported, net sales for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2008 were $1.766 billion, or 8.2% above sales of $1.632 billion for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2007. Sales in comparable stores increased 5.6%.”
  11. E11 Family Dollar Triumphs Over Prosperity and, as a Consequence, Recession CBS News · 13 September 2010

    “Now, as a range of retailers scramble to tuck back into the bargain space -- and not just Walmart but supermarket chains such as Supervalu (SVU), with its Save-a-lot discount grocery store division”

Reasoning

Family Dollar posted positive comparable-store sales during the 2008–2010 downturn: 5.6% in Q4 fiscal 2008 (E10), about 4% for a fiscal year during the recession (E8) and 4.8% in fiscal 2010 (E2). That is consistent with growth in hard times. But the only direct peer comparison shows Dollar General's same-store sales rising 9.4%, ahead of Family Dollar's 6.4% in roughly the same quarter (E1). The evidence also shows comparable-store growth slowing to 1% during the 2007 energy-price squeeze (E9) and Walmart and other chains moving back into the low-price segment (E11). None of the evidence gives market-share figures, so growth is shown but share gains against peers are not, and the evidence points both ways.

Cite this claim

Bill Ackman, “Family Dollar continues to take market share even during difficult economic environments.” (said 6 June 2011). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_d6e66ffb8f40, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_d6e66ffb8f40

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

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