Family Dollar trades at a price-earnings ratio of 14.
Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Judge as of 6 June 2011. True if Family Dollar's price-to-earnings ratio (share price divided by trailing or forward EPS, as commonly quoted) was about 14 (13.5–14.5). Mostly true if between 13 and 15 on a commonly used basis. Mixed if about 12–13 or 15–16, or 14 only on an unusual basis. Mostly false if 11–12 or 16–17. False if below 11 or above 17 on any common basis.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 Family Dollar (FDO) -- 3 Pros, 3 Cons InvestorPlace · 1 June 2011
“The shares are up roughly 38% to $55.53.”
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E2 0001157523-11-001803.txt - SEC.gov U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Family Dollar Stores, Inc. Form 8-K) · 30 March 2011
“For the full year, the Company expects that earnings per share will be between $3.13 and $3.23 compared with $2.62 in fiscal 2010.”
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E3 All in the family ira sohn conference.2011 SlideShare (presentation by Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P.) · 25 May 2011 Own record
“2012 P/E 14.7x 11.3x 8.9x”
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E4 All in the family ira sohn conference.2011 SlideShare (presentation by Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P.) · 25 May 2011 Own record
“FY 2012 EPS - Consensus $ 3.68”
Reasoning
E1, an article dated 1 June 2011, gives Family Dollar's share price as $55.53. Pershing Square's own presentation gives a FY2012 consensus EPS of $3.68 (E4) and a FY2012 P/E of 14.7x (E3). Using the E1 price and the E4 estimate gives about 15.1x on that next-year forward basis, which sits on the line between mostly true and mixed. On other common bases the multiple is higher: the company's FY2011 guidance midpoint of about $3.18 in E2 implies roughly 17.5x, and FY2010 EPS of $2.62 implies about 21x. The figure of about 14 holds only on the most forward-looking basis, and even there it is borderline, so the claim is mixed.
Cite this claim
Bill Ackman, “Family Dollar trades at a price-earnings ratio of 14.” (said 6 June 2011). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_d33c8879d7f4, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_d33c8879d7f4
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
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Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.