ClaimsRodney Brooks

“I had not bothered to predict a rosy future for humanoid robots, as when I made my predictions I had been working in that space for over twenty five years and had built both research humanoids and thousands of humanoid robots that were deployed in factories.”

Rodney Brooks, blog author 1 January 2024 Predictions Scorecard, 2024 January 01 (rodneybrooks.com)

Factual Their own work or organisation

Before 2018 Rodney Brooks had worked on humanoid robots for over twenty-five years and built research humanoids and thousands of humanoid robots deployed in factories.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

True if records show that by January 2018 Brooks had worked on humanoid robots for more than 25 years (e.g. Cog at MIT from the early 1990s or earlier), had built research humanoids, and had built thousands of humanoid robots deployed in factories (e.g. Rethink Robotics' Baxter and Sawyer units, if these are humanoid as the claim treats them). Mostly true if all three parts hold but the span is slightly under 25 years or the number deployed is somewhat below 'thousands'. Mixed if only one or two of the three parts hold. Mostly false if the factory robots are clearly not humanoid, or only a handful were deployed, while the research humanoid work is real. False if he did not build research humanoids or factory-deployed humanoid robots in those periods.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Inside the Rethink Robotics shutdown The Robot Report · 13 November 2018

    “It is unclear exactly how many robots Rethink sold, but The Robot Report in September 2015 reported the company “recently passed the 1,000 sales mark.””
  2. E2 Rethink Robotics – RobotEnomics RobotEnomics (WordPress blog) · 16 January 2017

    “Since the company began shipping Baxter in 2012 a cumulative number of between 850 and 900 Baxter robots have been installed worldwide.”
  3. E3 MIT Cog Springer (Humanoid Robotics: A Reference) · 10 October 2018

    “Starting in the summer of 1993, Cog was one of the first humanoid projects in the United States and was a departure from many of the traditional methods promoted by artificial intelligence research at the time.”
  4. E4 Groundbreaking maker of gentle factory robots shuts down Ars Technica · 8 October 2018

    “Back in 2014, we wrote about Baxter, an anthropomorphic factory robot that was gentle enough to work alongside human workers.”

Reasoning

The evidence shows that the Cog humanoid project started in summer 1993 [E3], that Baxter was an anthropomorphic factory robot [E4], and that roughly 850 to 1,000 Rethink or Baxter robots were sold or installed [E1][E2]. None of the quoted evidence names Brooks or links him to Cog, Rethink or Baxter, so it cannot show which parts of the claim hold for him.

Cite this claim

Rodney Brooks, “Before 2018 Rodney Brooks had worked on humanoid robots for over twenty-five years and built research humanoids and thousands of humanoid robots deployed in factories.” (said 1 January 2024). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_c964ef5eec9f, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_c964ef5eec9f

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Rodney Brooks, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Rodney Brooks

  1. Mostly true Factual 1 January 2026
    “But no, I had no idea it would be LLMs at the time of my correct prediction that something big would appear.”

    When Brooks predicted in 2018 that something big would appear in AI, he did not know it would be LLMs.

  2. Mostly true Factual 1 January 2024
    “I have spent my whole professional life developing robots and my companies have built more of them than anyone else”

    Brooks has spent his whole professional life developing robots, and his companies have built more robots than anyone else's.

  3. Resolved true Factual 1 January 2024
    “I bought my first electric car this year.”

    Brooks bought his first electric car in 2023.

  4. Mixed Factual 21 October 2023
    “they are safe in the presence of humans.”

    The warehouse mobile robots built by Brooks's current startup are safe in the presence of humans.

  5. Mostly true Factual 21 October 2023
    “I have reported about particular rides, that I or others have taken, when I think that the vehicles have done something for which a human driver would somehow be sanctioned if they had done the same…”

    Brooks said he has reported on particular autonomous vehicle rides, his or others', when he thought the vehicles had done something for which a human driver would somehow be sanctioned.

All of them

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