ClaimsJim Cramer

“if we're following the 2011 script, there'd be about a 12% decline from here until the bottom”

Jim Cramer, CNBC host 24 May 2023 As debt ceiling talks flounder, Cramer says lawmakers' actions will cost you (CNBC) archived copy

Prediction Economics and markets

If the market follows the 2011 debt ceiling pattern, US stocks will fall about 12% from their level on 2023-05-24 to the bottom.

Resolved false The record shows it did not happen or was not so.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

This is a hedged conditional prediction, judged on whether the S&P 500 had about a 12% fall from its 2023-05-24 close to a subsequent low by the horizon of 2023-10-31. That horizon allows for the 2011 pattern, in which the bottom came about 2.5 months after the deal. True: the lowest close was 10–14% below the 2023-05-24 close. Mostly true: the decline was 9–10% or 14–16%. Mostly false: a smaller decline of 4–9% occurred. False: the maximum decline was under 4%, or the index never closed below its 2023-05-24 level, or it fell more than 16%.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (8)

  1. E1 Table Data - S&P 500 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), data from S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC

    “#2023-05-24|4115.24”

  2. E2 Table Data - S&P 500 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), data from S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC

    “#2023-10-03|4229.45”

  3. E3 S&P 500 Return in 2023: +24.2% (+26.3% with Dividends) historyofmarket.com · 9 October 2026

    “The deepest fall from a peak within the year was −10.3%, bottoming on October 27, 2023.”

  4. E4 Table Data - S&P 500 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED); source S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC

    “#2023-05-24|4115.24”

  5. E5 Table Data - S&P 500 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED); source S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC

    “#2023-10-03|4229.45”

  6. E6 Table Data - S&P 500 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED); source S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC

    “#2023-10-06|4308.50”

  7. E7 S And P 500 Index On Oct 27 2023 | StatMuse Money StatMuse · 27 October 2023

    “The closing price for the S&P 500 (GSPC) on October 27, 2023 was $4,117.37.”

  8. E8 S&P 500 (^GSPC) Historical Data - Yahoo Finance Yahoo Finance

    “There are no in the selected time period.”

Reasoning

FRED data puts the S&P 500's 2023-05-24 close at 4115.24 (E1/E5). The deepest fall from a peak in 2023 was −10.3% and bottomed on October 27, 2023 (E3), when the index closed at 4,117.37 (E8). That low is slightly above the May 24 close. The available closes, including the October 27 bottom of the year's deepest fall from a peak (4,117.37 [E3][E8]), do not show a fall of anything like 12% from the May 24 close of 4,115.24 [E1] by the October 31, 2023 horizon, which points to the criteria's "false" condition.

Cite this claim

Jim Cramer, “If the market follows the 2011 debt ceiling pattern, US stocks will fall about 12% from their level on 2023-05-24 to the bottom.” (said 24 May 2023). Verdict: resolved false. Reliability API, claim c_c79f703e9a23, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_c79f703e9a23

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More prediction claims by Jim Cramer

  1. Resolved false Prediction 24 May 2023
    “Get ready for our politicians to lose you some more money”

    US politicians will cause investors to lose more money as the May 2023 debt ceiling negotiations drag on.

All of them

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