ClaimsEliezer Yudkowsky

“Human raters make systematic errors – regular, compactly describable, predictable errors.”

Eliezer Yudkowsky, author 10 June 2022 AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities (MIRI)

Factual AI safety and alignment

Human raters make systematic, regular, compactly describable and predictable errors.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Judge as of 2022-06-10. True: research (e.g. on RLHF and reward modelling, annotator bias, cognitive biases in human judgement) shows that human raters make errors that are systematic, i.e. predictable and describable patterns such as length bias, preference for confident or flattering answers, and known cognitive biases, rather than only random noise. Mostly true: systematic errors are documented, but 'compactly describable' or 'predictable' is somewhat overstated for some error types. Mixed: the evidence shows rater errors are about equally random noise and systematic bias. Mostly false: rater errors are mostly random, with only minor systematic components. False: the evidence shows rater errors are not systematic.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Comparing verbosity bias in Human and LLM based evaluators Amanda Dsouza (personal blog, amy12xx.github.io) · 26 July 2023

    “Similarly, on the Vicuna benchmark, 68.82% of the time, annotators preferred outputs with longer generations, between competing models (controlled for position bias).”
  2. E2 Comparing verbosity bias in Human and LLM based evaluators Amanda Dsouza (personal blog, amy12xx.github.io) · 26 July 2023

    “We compare the model generated outputs in MT-bench evaluated by human experts and GPT-4, and find that the rate of preferring longer generated text outputs is nearly the same by both, while being slightly higher for GPT-4 (Human eval - 61.22% versus GPT-4 eval - 65.95%).”
  3. E3 A survey of reward hacking in agentic large language model systems - Discover Artificial Intelligence Springer (Discover Artificial Intelligence) · 17 August 2026

    “Human preference labels carry systematic biases (verbosity and agreeableness) that the reward model encodes as training signals, which are amplified by RL optimization.”
  4. E4 Explaining Length Bias in LLM-Based Preference Evaluations arXiv (academic preprint) · 30 March 2023

    “However, attributing human preference solely to response length is an oversimplification, as length is merely a superficial factor in how humans judge the quality of a sentence.”

Reasoning

E1 and E2 report that human annotators chose the longer output in 68.82% (Vicuna) and 61.22% (MT-bench) of pairwise comparisons, a directional, measurable bias rather than random noise. E3, a survey, states that human preference labels carry systematic biases toward verbosity and agreeableness. E4 cautions that putting human preference down to length alone is an oversimplification, which suggests that length bias alone does not fully describe how raters judge. These sources postdate the claim, but they describe a property of human judgement that is not tied to any date, so on balance they support the claim with some qualification.

Cite this claim

Eliezer Yudkowsky, “Human raters make systematic, regular, compactly describable and predictable errors.” (said 10 June 2022). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_c4f749f86c6e, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_c4f749f86c6e

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More factual claims by Eliezer Yudkowsky

  1. Mixed Factual 20 April 2026
    “I was observing that obvious-seeming hypothesis myself, sometime around the time of GPT 3.5.”

    Yudkowsky himself observed the persona-selection-like hypothesis around the time of GPT 3.5.

  2. Mostly true Factual 20 April 2026
    “The test-passing preference stands on its own once formed.”

    Once formed through RL training, an LLM's test-passing preference stands on its own and is not overridden by its inference of what the user wants.

  3. Mostly true Factual 20 April 2026
    “LLMs surely have neural circuits they learned to model text streams from fictional and nonfictional personas that are not lying, deceiving, cheating.”

    LLMs surely have neural circuits they learned to model text streams from fictional and nonfictional personas that are not lying, deceiving…

  4. Mostly true Factual 20 April 2026
    “The predict-as-if-honest circuitry is contextual, invoked to predict some streams of text but not others.”

    LLMs' predict-as-if-honest circuitry is contextual, invoked for predicting some text streams but not others.

  5. Mostly true Factual 20 April 2026
    “Presumably, somewhere along the way LLMs learn a dispreference for tests that don't pass, independently of how that gets prevented or whether the new plan does what the user really wanted.”

    Presumably, at some point during RL training on code-passing tasks, LLMs learn a dispreference for failing tests, independent of how that is avoided or whether the user's real goal is met.

All of them

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