Human raters make systematic, regular, compactly describable and predictable errors.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Judge as of 2022-06-10. True: research (e.g. on RLHF and reward modelling, annotator bias, cognitive biases in human judgement) shows that human raters make errors that are systematic, i.e. predictable and describable patterns such as length bias, preference for confident or flattering answers, and known cognitive biases, rather than only random noise. Mostly true: systematic errors are documented, but 'compactly describable' or 'predictable' is somewhat overstated for some error types. Mixed: the evidence shows rater errors are about equally random noise and systematic bias. Mostly false: rater errors are mostly random, with only minor systematic components. False: the evidence shows rater errors are not systematic.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 Comparing verbosity bias in Human and LLM based evaluators Amanda Dsouza (personal blog, amy12xx.github.io) · 26 July 2023
“Similarly, on the Vicuna benchmark, 68.82% of the time, annotators preferred outputs with longer generations, between competing models (controlled for position bias).”
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E2 Comparing verbosity bias in Human and LLM based evaluators Amanda Dsouza (personal blog, amy12xx.github.io) · 26 July 2023
“We compare the model generated outputs in MT-bench evaluated by human experts and GPT-4, and find that the rate of preferring longer generated text outputs is nearly the same by both, while being slightly higher for GPT-4 (Human eval - 61.22% versus GPT-4 eval - 65.95%).”
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E3 A survey of reward hacking in agentic large language model systems - Discover Artificial Intelligence Springer (Discover Artificial Intelligence) · 17 August 2026
“Human preference labels carry systematic biases (verbosity and agreeableness) that the reward model encodes as training signals, which are amplified by RL optimization.”
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E4 Explaining Length Bias in LLM-Based Preference Evaluations arXiv (academic preprint) · 30 March 2023
“However, attributing human preference solely to response length is an oversimplification, as length is merely a superficial factor in how humans judge the quality of a sentence.”
Reasoning
E1 and E2 report that human annotators chose the longer output in 68.82% (Vicuna) and 61.22% (MT-bench) of pairwise comparisons, a directional, measurable bias rather than random noise. E3, a survey, states that human preference labels carry systematic biases toward verbosity and agreeableness. E4 cautions that putting human preference down to length alone is an oversimplification, which suggests that length bias alone does not fully describe how raters judge. These sources postdate the claim, but they describe a property of human judgement that is not tied to any date, so on balance they support the claim with some qualification.
Cite this claim
Eliezer Yudkowsky, “Human raters make systematic, regular, compactly describable and predictable errors.” (said 10 June 2022). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_c4f749f86c6e, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_c4f749f86c6e
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More factual claims by Eliezer Yudkowsky
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Mixed
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Yudkowsky himself observed the persona-selection-like hypothesis around the time of GPT 3.5.
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“The test-passing preference stands on its own once formed.”
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“LLMs surely have neural circuits they learned to model text streams from fictional and nonfictional personas that are not lying, deceiving, cheating.”
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“The predict-as-if-honest circuitry is contextual, invoked to predict some streams of text but not others.”
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“Presumably, somewhere along the way LLMs learn a dispreference for tests that don't pass, independently of how that gets prevented or whether the new plan does what the user really wanted.”
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