Public sentiment turned very sour over the three to five months before September 2010.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Read "sentiment" as US public or consumer and business sentiment about the economy. Measures are the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, Gallup economic confidence, and right-track/wrong-track polls, compared between roughly April–May 2010 and September 2010. True: most of these measures fell markedly over that window to clearly pessimistic levels. Mostly true: they declined and were pessimistic, but the decline was modest or the timing differs slightly. Mixed: the measures disagree, with some falling sharply and others flat or improving. Mostly false: sentiment was already poor and roughly flat, so it did not "turn". False: the measures generally improved over the window.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 Americans Less Optimistic About the Economy in July Gallup · 29 July 2010
“Americans' economic optimism declined from 41% at the beginning of May to 30% in mid-July before ticking up to 33% over the past couple of weeks.”
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E2 U.S. Consumers Lose Confidence: Some Fear Double Dip Recession The Fiscal Times · 28 July 2010
“the reading signals a troublesome reversal—the second straight monthly decline after three months of increases.”
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E3 U.S. Economic Confidence More Negative Than a Year Ago Gallup · 14 September 2010
“Gallup's Economic Confidence Index, at -34 during the week ending Sept. 12, confirms a downward trend in consumer confidence that started in mid-August.”
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E4 U.S. Economic Confidence More Negative Than a Year Ago Gallup · 14 September 2010
“During each of the first two weeks of this month, 47% of Americans rated current economic conditions as "poor."”
Reasoning
Gallup found Americans' economic optimism fell from 41% at the start of May to 30% in mid-July, then edged up to 33% (E1). A July 2010 consumer confidence reading was the second straight monthly decline after three months of increases (E2). By mid-September Gallup's Economic Confidence Index stood at -34, in a downward trend that began in mid-August, and 47% of Americans rated current conditions as "poor" (E3, E4). So the measures given fell from spring and ended at clearly pessimistic levels. The evidence does not cover the Michigan index or right-track/wrong-track polls, and the decline came in stages with a brief rebound, so the verdict is mostly true rather than true.
Cite this claim
Warren Buffett, “Public sentiment turned very sour over the three to five months before September 2010.” (said 23 September 2010). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_c39e4e1b20d9, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_c39e4e1b20d9
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
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