MDLZ trades at about 15.5 times forward earnings, a trough valuation since the October 2012 Kraft Foods spin-off and a 25% discount to its average multiple since then.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Judge as of 2018-05-17. The claim has three parts: MDLZ's forward P/E was about 15.5x (accept roughly 15 to 16x); this was the lowest forward multiple since the October 2012 spin-off; and it was a discount of about 25% (accept roughly 22 to 28%) to the average forward multiple since then. True: market data (consensus next-twelve-month EPS) confirm all three. Mostly true: all hold in substance, with a small slip such as the multiple being near the trough rather than exactly at it, or a discount of about 20 to 30%. Mixed: the multiple is right but only one of the other two parts holds. Mostly false: the multiple is materially off (for example below 14x or above 17x), or it was clearly not near a trough. False: none of the figures is close.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (3)
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E1 Time to Feast on Shares of Undervalued Mondelez - Morningstar Morningstar · 26 September 2018
“think that investors should feast on shares, which trade at around a 15% discount to our $52 fair value estimate and the high-teens to low 20s price/earnings multiple of its wide-moat peers.”
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E2 Mondelez International (MDLZ) forward PE: 20.2× today | Superworth Superworth · 3 November 2026
“Over that time it ranged from 16.5× in May 2018 to 26.5× in Sep 2024.”
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E3 Mondelēz International Reports 2017 Results | Mondelēz International, Inc. Mondelēz International, Inc. · 31 January 2018
“The company also expects double-digit Adjusted EPS growth on a constant-currency basis.”
Reasoning
E2 says MDLZ's forward P/E hit a low of 16.5x in May 2018. That points to a trough around the claim date, but the figure is a little above the accepted 15–16x range. E2's quote also doesn't say when its data series starts, so it doesn't confirm a trough since the October 2012 spin-off. None of the evidence gives MDLZ's average forward multiple since 2012, so the claimed 25% discount can't be checked. E1 and E3 don't give MDLZ's forward multiple as of May 2018. With one partial, indirect source, the three-part claim isn't settled.
Cite this claim
Bill Ackman, “MDLZ trades at about 15.5 times forward earnings, a trough valuation since the October 2012 Kraft Foods spin-off and a 25% discount to its average multiple since then.” (said 17 May 2018). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_c16814de40dd, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_c16814de40dd
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
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