Dalio said he thinks that, unlike Germany or Japan in past rivalries, China is a more powerful country relative to the United States.

Judge as of October 2020. Compare China's power relative to the US in 2020 with Germany's and Japan's power relative to the US at the height of their rivalries with it: Germany c. 1930s–1940s, and Japan c. 1940s and/or late 1980s–early 1990s. Use standard measures: GDP as a share of US GDP (nominal and PPP), manufacturing output, share of world trade, population, and military spending or capability. TRUE: on most of these measures China's ratio to the US in 2020 exceeds both Germany's and Japan's ratios at their peaks. MOSTLY TRUE: China exceeds both on most measures, but one rival matched or exceeded it on one or two measures (e.g. Japan's nominal GDP ratio in 1995). MIXED: China exceeds one of the two rivals but not the other on most measures, or the measures are split roughly evenly. MOSTLY FALSE: China exceeds them only on a minority of measures (e.g. population alone). FALSE: on most measures China's power relative to the US is equal to or below that of both Germany and Japan.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Military expenditure | SIPRI Yearbook 2020: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security Oxford Academic (SIPRI Yearbook 2020, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute) · 14 September 2020

   “The USA increased its spending for the second straight year to reach $732 billion in 2019. This was 2.7 times larger than the $261 billion spent by China, the world's next highest spender.”

2. E2 The economics of World War II: an overview Mark Harrison, University of Warwick (academic working paper)

   “By the late 1980s, all were within 70-80 per cent of the US benchmark; this was also the British case but for Britain it did not mark an improvement over the past.”

3. E3 The economics of World War II: an overview Mark Harrison, University of Warwick (academic working paper)

   “Japan was also at war with China, the population and territory of which exceeded those of Japan and its existing colonies by 3.1:1 and 4.9:1.”

4. E4 Military expenditure SIPRI Yearbook 2020 (Oxford Academic, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute) · 14 September 2020

   “This was 2.7 times larger than the $261 billion spent by China, the world’s next highest spender.”

5. E5 The economics of World War II: an overview Mark Harrison (University of Warwick)

   “In the Far East Japan was also at war with China, the population and territory of which exceeded those of Japan and its existing colonies by 3.1:1 and 4.9:1.”

6. E6 The economics of World War II: an overview Mark Harrison (University of Warwick)

   “By the late 1980s, all were within 70-80 per cent of the US benchmark; this was also the British case but for Britain it did not mark an improvement over the past.”

7. E7 the U.S.A., U.K., U.S.S.R., and Germany, 1938-1945 Mark Harrison (University of Warwick); published in Economic History Review 41:2 (1988) · 1988

   “Table 1 shows that in the years 1935-9 Germany had procured a volume of combat munitions far greater than any other power, and equal in real terms to the munitions production of all her future adversaries combined.”

8. E8 the U.S.A., U.K., U.S.S.R., and Germany, 1938-1945 Mark Harrison (University of Warwick); published in Economic History Review 41:2 (1988) · 1988

   “Already in the last “peacetime” year of 1938 Germany’s military expenditures were costing her one-sixth of her national income.”

9. E9 the U.S.A., U.K., U.S.S.R., and Germany, 1938-1945 Mark Harrison (University of Warwick); published in Economic History Review 41:2 (1988) · 1988

   “The United States abstained altogether from the rearmament process, defence allocations remaining insignificant in proportion to her national income as late as 1940.”

The only ratio the evidence states directly for China against the US is military spending: China's 2019 spending was $261 billion against $732 billion for the US, about 36% (E1, E4). Most of the measures in the criteria have no matching figures for Germany or Japan against the US. These are GDP (nominal and PPP), manufacturing output, share of world trade and population. E2/E6 do not say which measure the '70-80 per cent of the US benchmark' refers to, and E3/E5 compare China with Japan, not with the US. E7–E9 show that Germany procured far more munitions in 1935–39 than any other power, while US defence allocations remained insignificant in proportion to national income as late as 1940. That bears on only one measure, so the evidence cannot settle the comparison across most of them.