New constituencies in corporate governance, such as activists, have become stronger over the years.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge said resolved true; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Judge as of July 2016. True: credible data or analysis (for example, counts of activist campaigns, assets under management at activist funds, board seats won, proxy-fight statistics) show that activist investors and similar new constituencies had grown clearly stronger in corporate governance in the years before 2016. Mostly true: activism grew overall, but with a minor caveat (for example, a plateau in the latest year). Mixed: the evidence is split on whether these groups' influence had grown. Mostly false: activists' influence was broadly flat, and only a narrow measure showed growth. False: the data show activist influence had declined over the period.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 Sullivan & Cromwell Reviews and Analyzes 2016 U.S. Shareholder Activism CLS Blue Sky Blog (Columbia Law School), republishing a Sullivan & Cromwell review · 15 December 2016
“From 2013 to mid-2015, the growth rate of AUM by activist hedge funds was significantly higher than the growth rate experienced by the hedge fund industry as a whole. Activist AUM grew on average 7% per quarter over this time period, whereas all other hedge funds grew at an average rate of less than 3% per quarter.”
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E2 The Wolf at the Door: The Impact of Hedge Fund Activism on Corporate Governance University of Melbourne Law School (slides by Prof. John C. Coffee Jr., Columbia Law School) · 4 August 2015
“2014 saw a record 347 “activist” campaigns (FactSet Shark Watch)—up from 209 in 2009.”
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E3 Sullivan & Cromwell Reviews and Analyzes 2016 U.S. Shareholder Activism CLS Blue Sky Blog (Columbia Law School), republishing a Sullivan & Cromwell review · 15 December 2016
“Over time, the trend has favored activists, with ISS recommending in support of management 49% of the time in 2013, but only 36% of the time in 2016.”
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E4 Sullivan & Cromwell Reviews and Analyzes 2016 U.S. Shareholder Activism CLS Blue Sky Blog (Columbia Law School), republishing a Sullivan & Cromwell review · 15 December 2016
“Of the proxy contests that go all the way to a vote, management’s board candidates have been increasingly successful in defeating activist investors’ slates of directors.”
Reasoning
Coffee's 2015 slides report a record 347 activist campaigns in 2014, up from 209 in 2009 (E2). The Sullivan & Cromwell review says activist hedge fund assets under management grew about 7% per quarter from 2013 to mid-2015, against under 3% for other hedge funds (E1). It also says ISS backed management in proxy fights less often over time, falling from 49% in 2013 to 36% in 2016 (E3). The one caveat is that management's board candidates were increasingly beating activist slates in proxy contests that went all the way to a vote (E4), so overall growth in activist strength is clear but has a minor qualification.
Cite this claim
Warren Buffett, “New constituencies in corporate governance, such as activists, have become stronger over the years.” (said 21 July 2016). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_bac2d12c9319, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_bac2d12c9319
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
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Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.