ClaimsBill Ackman

“We also purchased puts on the Saudi Riyal as an inexpensive way to hedge against a continued decline in energy prices.”

Bill Ackman, Pershing Square letter January 2016 Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Annual Investor Letter (2015 letter) (GuruFocus)

Factual Economics and markets

Pershing Square purchased puts on the Saudi Riyal to hedge against a continued decline in energy prices.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

The evidence is the person's or their organisation's own records.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

True: Pershing Square's own reports show that by January 2016 it held purchased put options (or equivalent long-USD/short-SAR options) on the Saudi riyal, and that it described them as a hedge against further falls in energy prices; the stated motive is accepted as Pershing's own account. Mostly true: the position existed but its form differed in a minor way (for example options bought in a forward or structured form rather than plain puts, or opened shortly after the letter's reference date). Mostly false: Pershing held a related but different hedge (for example on oil or on a different currency) rather than riyal puts. False: the reports show Pershing held no position against the riyal at that time.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (2)

  1. E1 1 Pershing Square Holdings (Bill Ackman's 2015 annual letter to shareholders) · 26 January 2016 Own record

    “To date, despite the large notional size of this currency/market hedge and continued weakness in the yuan and growing pressure on the Saudi Riyal, we have made only a modest profit on these investments.”
  2. E2 PSH-Annual-Report-12.31.151.pdf Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. (2015 Annual Report) · March 2016 Own record

    “We also purchase put options on currencies to hedge certain macro or other concerns.”

Reasoning

Pershing Square's 2015 annual letter, dated 26 January 2016 (E2), refers to a large-notional currency/market hedge on which it had made "only a modest profit" to date. It links the hedge's results to "growing pressure on the Saudi Riyal," which fits held riyal put positions. The 2015 Annual Report (E3) confirms that the fund buys put options on currencies to hedge macro concerns. Under the criteria, the stated energy-price motive is accepted as Pershing's own account. Both sources are Pershing's own published records, not independent confirmation.

Cite this claim

Bill Ackman, “Pershing Square purchased puts on the Saudi Riyal to hedge against a continued decline in energy prices.” (said January 2016). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_b92df225fdfb, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_b92df225fdfb

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

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