During 2007, under pressure from investors, Michael Burry liquidated most of Scion's credit default swaps at a substantial profit.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
True: contemporaneous or later records (Scion investor letters, Michael Lewis's The Big Short, press reports or Burry's own documented statements) show that during calendar 2007 Scion sold or unwound most (more than half) of its credit default swap positions at a substantial overall profit, with investor pressure as a factor. Mostly true: most positions were liquidated at a substantial profit, but the timing extended slightly into early 2008, or the role of investor pressure is unclear. Mixed: only about half of the positions were liquidated in 2007, or the profit was modest. Mostly false: only a minority were liquidated in 2007, or most were sold later. False: the records show the bulk were held well past 2007, or that they were closed without a substantial profit.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (3)
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E1 The Big Short Chapter 8-Afterword Summary & Analysis | SuperSummary SuperSummary
“Michael Burry’s Scion fund sells its credit default swaps at enormous markups: “By the end of the year, in a portfolio of less than $550 million, he would have realized profits of more than $720 million” (223).”
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E2 The Big Short Chapter 8-Afterword Summary & Analysis | SuperSummary SuperSummary
“By late 2006, however, his fund is losing money and investors lose patience, lining up to get their money back”
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E3 Scion Asset Management - Wikipedia Wikipedia Own record
“Scion made $725 million for investors with Burry personally making $100 million.”
Reasoning
The evidence shows that Scion sold credit default swaps at large markups and realized profits of more than $720 million (about $725 million) by the end of an unnamed year [E2][E4], and that investors were losing patience by late 2006 [E3]. No evidence item names 2007 as the year of the sales or says what share of the positions was sold, so the criteria cannot be applied.
Cite this claim
Michael Burry, “During 2007, under pressure from investors, Michael Burry liquidated most of Scion's credit default swaps at a substantial profit.” (said 6 April 2010). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_b8b5c5d03c5f, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_b8b5c5d03c5f
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More factual claims by Michael Burry
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Mostly true
“I have never said that LLMs would stop improving”
Michael Burry has never said that LLMs would stop improving.
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Resolved true
“Why I swapped common stock for the junior preferred shares of Fannie Mae”
Michael Burry swapped common stock for junior preferred shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
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Resolved true
“I never said the A100s would stop functioning.”
Michael Burry never said that A100 chips would stop functioning.
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Mixed
“I have generally stayed away from biomed and medtech.”
Michael Burry has generally stayed away from investing in biomed and medtech.
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Mostly true
“I am still running my money and active in markets.”
Michael Burry is still managing his own money and is active in markets.
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.