ClaimsMichael Burry

“This was well in advance of the government bailouts.”

Michael Burry, op-ed author 6 April 2010 Michael Burry Saw the Financial Crisis Coming. Why didn't the Fed? (NYT op-ed) (Lawrence University blog)

Factual Their own work or organisation

Burry exited his remaining credit default positions well before the government bailouts of the financial crisis.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Test: Burry, through Scion, had closed out his remaining credit default swap positions well before the government bailouts of the financial crisis. The main bailouts are the AIG rescue and TARP (September–October 2008); the Bear Stearns rescue (March 2008) also counts. 'Well before' means at least about two months before September 2008. - True: Scion records or credible reporting show all CDS positions were exited by about mid-2008 or earlier. - Mostly true: positions were exited before September 2008, but only weeks rather than months before. - Mixed: most positions were exited well before, but a material part remained until close to the bailouts. - Mostly false: substantial positions were still held into September–October 2008, or closed during the bailouts. - False: the positions were held through and past the bailouts.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (2)

  1. E1 Michael Burry's Testimony Before The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission ValueWalk · 29 March 2011 Own record

    “The RMBS – CDS stuff, by (I believe) the first quarter of ’08… probably by March of ‘08.”
  2. E2 Michael Burry's Testimony Before The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission ValueWalk · 29 March 2011

    “I noticed that this sheet as of January 4, 2007 and I’ve had a chance to go through your most… Most of your year and investor letters and it looks like everything if not close to everything was closed out.”

Reasoning

The only dating of the exit is Burry's own hedged recollection that the CDS positions were closed "probably by March of '08" [E1], which is not independent of him. The interviewer's remark [E2] says nearly everything looked closed out but gives no date. Neither Scion records nor independent reporting in the evidence shows when the positions were exited.

Cite this claim

Michael Burry, “Burry exited his remaining credit default positions well before the government bailouts of the financial crisis.” (said 6 April 2010). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_b7ef68f80075, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_b7ef68f80075

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Michael Burry, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Michael Burry

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    “I have never said that LLMs would stop improving”

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  2. Resolved true Factual 13 October 2026
    “Why I swapped common stock for the junior preferred shares of Fannie Mae”

    Michael Burry swapped common stock for junior preferred shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

  3. Resolved true Factual 9 July 2026
    “I never said the A100s would stop functioning.”

    Michael Burry never said that A100 chips would stop functioning.

  4. Mixed Factual December 2025
    “I have generally stayed away from biomed and medtech.”

    Michael Burry has generally stayed away from investing in biomed and medtech.

  5. Mostly true Factual 19 November 2025
    “I am still running my money and active in markets.”

    Michael Burry is still managing his own money and is active in markets.

All of them

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