Square is possibly the most popular payment system, and when Khosla Ventures backed it everybody told Khosla it would take 10-15 years.

Judge as of 2013-12-07. There are two parts: (a) Square was possibly the most popular payment system (hedged), and (b) when Khosla Ventures backed Square, people told Khosla adoption would take 10-15 years. Part (a) holds if Square was in late 2013 among the most widely used payment systems in its category (mobile or small-merchant card acceptance), as shown by market data or press coverage. It fails if Square was clearly a minor player. Given the 'possibly', Square does not need to be number one overall. Part (b) holds if there is evidence that Khosla Ventures invested in Square and that, at the time, people were sceptical about adoption, including Khosla's own contemporaneous accounts. True: both parts hold. Mostly true: Khosla Ventures invested and the scepticism is attested, but Square's popularity is overstated, being leading only in a narrow niche. Mixed: one part holds and the other does not. Mostly false: Khosla Ventures did invest, but Square was clearly not among the most popular payment systems and nothing supports the scepticism account. False: Khosla Ventures never invested in Square.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Mobile payment systems are ringing up more competition Los Angeles Times · 13 June 2013

   “The standard bearer has been Square, among the first companies to enable credit card payments to be accepted on mobile phones through its Square Reader and app in 2010. It has since seen a big boom in the number of businesses and people using their app, and it is now processing more than $15 billion in payments annually.”

2. E2 Square raises $27.5m - Finextra Research Finextra · 11 January 2011

   “Previous investor Khosla Ventures also participated in the round which sees the start-up valued at around $240 million.”

3. E3 Study: Consumers don't know mobile wallets Retail Dive · 5 February 2013

   “Even Square, which has an endorsement from Starbucks, failed to register with participants; only 8% of the study's participants had heard of it.”

4. E4 Our Debut: Vinod Khosla Khosla Ventures · 30 March 2022 Own record

   “take a company like Square. It was four or five people when we invested, but if it was going to transform small business, it'd be as valuable or more valuable than American Express in 10 years, that was the thesis.”

Part (a) is supported. In June 2013 the LA Times called Square the "standard bearer" in mobile card acceptance, processing more than $15 billion a year [E1]. That fits the hedged "possibly the most popular" in its category, even though one consumer survey found low awareness of Square as a mobile wallet [E3]. Khosla Ventures' investment in Square is confirmed by E2. However, no evidence shows that people told Khosla adoption would take 10-15 years: E4 is Khosla's own later account of his investment thesis, not of other people's doubts. Under the criteria, part (b) needs evidence of that scepticism, so it is not supported here, which makes the result mixed.