ClaimsMichael Burry

“Think about it, two trillion seconds is 64,000 years.”

Michael Burry, speaking at Vanderbilt lecture 5 April 2011 Transcript of Michael Burry's talk, Missteps to Mayhem (Vanderbilt News)

Factual Other

Two trillion seconds equals about 64,000 years.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

Test: 2 × 10^12 seconds is about 64,000 years. Compute it by dividing 2 × 10^12 by the seconds in a year (about 31.536 to 31.557 million). - True: the result is within 5% of 64,000. - Mostly true: the result is within 10% of 64,000. - Mostly false: the result is within 25% of 64,000. - False: the result is more than 25% away from 64,000, for example off by an order of magnitude.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 year | formula.expert formula.expert · 19 September 2026

    “The year used here is the Julian year, exactly 365.25 days of 86,400 seconds, which is exactly 31,557,600 seconds.”
  2. E2 Pointless Large Number Stuff - 1.03. Sizes of the -illions Pointless Large Number Stuff (personal Google Sites page) · 1 January 2024

    “A trillion seconds is about 32,000 years, meaning that a trillion seconds ago was still well before recorded history or even the onset of agriculture.”
  3. E3 How Many Seconds Are in a Year? Four Correct Answers - worldtimedata worldtimedata · 24 October 2026

    “Common year: 365 × 86,400 = 31,536,000 seconds”
  4. E4 How Many Seconds Are in a Year? Four Correct Answers - worldtimedata worldtimedata · 24 October 2026

    “Astronomers use a simpler standard: 365.25 days of exactly 86,400 seconds, the average year of the old Julian calendar with a leap year every four years without exception.”

Reasoning

E1 and E4 give a Julian year of 31,557,600 seconds, and E3 gives a common year of 31,536,000 seconds. Dividing 2 × 10^12 seconds by these gives about 63,380 to 63,420 years. That is within 1% of 64,000, well inside the 5% margin for "true". E2 independently says a trillion seconds is about 32,000 years, which agrees with this result.

Cite this claim

Michael Burry, “Two trillion seconds equals about 64,000 years.” (said 5 April 2011). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_b64ebd9baf51, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_b64ebd9baf51

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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All of them

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