ClaimsRodney Brooks

“I made predictions about AVs (along with AI and space) back on Jan 1st, 2018, and have reviewed them every January 1st since then.”

Rodney Brooks, roboticist, blog author 21 October 2023 Autonomous Vehicles 2023, Part I (rodneybrooks.com)

Factual Their own work or organisation

Rodney Brooks made predictions about autonomous vehicles, AI and space on 1 January 2018 and has reviewed them every 1 January since.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

The evidence is the person's or their organisation's own records.

What would count as true or false

Judge as of 21 October 2023. True: Brooks published dated predictions covering autonomous vehicles, AI and space on 1 January 2018, and published a review of them on or around 1 January in each of 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023. A review posted within a few days of 1 January counts. Mostly true: everything holds, except that one review appeared some days off 1 January, or the original post is dated a day or two from 1 January 2018. Mixed: the predictions exist, but one or more yearly reviews were skipped. Mostly false: the predictions were made in a different year, or were reviewed only occasionally. False: no such 2018 predictions post exists.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (12)

  1. E1 Predictions Scorecard, 2019 January 01 rodneybrooks.com (Rodney Brooks's blog) · 1 January 2019 Own record

    “On January 1st, 2018, I made predictions (here) about self driving cars, Artificial Intelligence and machine learning, and about progress in the space industry. Those predictions had dates attached to them for 32 years up through January 1st, 2050.”

  2. E2 Predictions Scorecard, 2020 January 01 rodneybrooks.com (Rodney Brooks's blog) · 1 January 2020 Own record

    “This post, today, January 1st, 2020, is my second annual self appraisal of how well I did–I have 30 more annual appraisals ahead of me.”

  3. E3 Predictions Scorecard, 2021 January 01 rodneybrooks.com (Rodney Brooks's blog) · 1 January 2021 Own record

    “This is my third annual review and self appraisal, following those of 2019 and 2020. Only 29 to go!”

  4. E4 Predictions Scorecard, 2022 January 01 rodneybrooks.com (Rodney Brooks's blog) · 1 January 2022 Own record

    “This is my fourth annual review and self appraisal, following those of 2019, 2020, and 2021.”

  5. E5 Predictions Scorecard, 2019 January 01 rodneybrooks.com (Rodney Brooks's blog) · 1 January 2019 Own record

    “On January 1st, 2018, I made predictions (here) about self driving cars, Artificial Intelligence and machine learning, and about progress in the space industry.”

  6. E6 Predictions Scorecard, 2020 January 01 rodneybrooks.com (Rodney Brooks's blog) · 1 January 2020 Own record

    “This post, today, January 1st, 2020, is my second annual self appraisal of how well I did–I have 30 more annual appraisals ahead of me.”

  7. E7 Predictions Scorecard, 2021 January 01 rodneybrooks.com (Rodney Brooks's blog) · 1 January 2021 Own record

    “This is my third annual review and self appraisal, following those of 2019 and 2020.”

  8. E8 Predictions Scorecard, 2022 January 01 rodneybrooks.com (Rodney Brooks's blog) · 1 January 2022 Own record

    “This is my fourth annual review and self appraisal, following those of 2019, 2020, and 2021.”

  9. E9 Predictions Scorecard, 2023 January 01 rodneybrooks.com (Rodney Brooks's blog) · 1 January 2023 Own record

    “On January 1st, 2018, I made predictions about self driving cars, Artificial Intelligence, machine learning, and robotics, and about progress in the space industry.”

  10. E10 Predictions Scorecard, 2023 January 01 rodneybrooks.com (Rodney Brooks's blog) · 1 January 2023 Own record

    “As part of self certifying the seriousness of my predictions I promised to review them, as made on January 1st, 2018, every following January 1st for 32 years, the span of the predictions, to see how accurate they were.”

  11. E11 Predictions Scorecard, 2023 January 01 rodneybrooks.com (Rodney Brooks's blog) · 1 January 2023 Own record

    “This is my fifth annual review and self appraisal, following those of 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022.”

  12. E12 Predictions Scorecard, 2023 January 01 rodneybrooks.com (Rodney Brooks's blog) · 1 January 2023 Own record

    “20190101 It didn't happen in 2018. Now both SpaceX and Boeing say they will do it in 2019.”

Reasoning

Brooks's blog has a review post dated 1 January for each year from 2019 to 2023 (E1, E2, E3, E4, E9). The 2019 and 2023 posts refer to predictions he made on 1 January 2018 about self-driving cars, AI and machine learning, and the space industry (E1, E5, E9). The posts also number themselves in sequence, from the second annual appraisal through the fifth, which shows that no year was skipped (E2, E7, E8, E11). All of these sources are the published review posts themselves, not independent reports, but together they meet the criteria for the claim being true.

Cite this claim

Rodney Brooks, “Rodney Brooks made predictions about autonomous vehicles, AI and space on 1 January 2018 and has reviewed them every 1 January since.” (said 21 October 2023). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_b2c42848a8af, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_b2c42848a8af

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Rodney Brooks, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Rodney Brooks

  1. Mostly true Factual 1 January 2026
    “But no, I had no idea it would be LLMs at the time of my correct prediction that something big would appear.”

    When Brooks predicted in 2018 that something big would appear in AI, he did not know it would be LLMs.

  2. Mostly true Factual 1 January 2024
    “I have spent my whole professional life developing robots and my companies have built more of them than anyone else”

    Brooks has spent his whole professional life developing robots, and his companies have built more robots than anyone else's.

  3. Resolved true Factual 1 January 2024
    “I bought my first electric car this year.”

    Brooks bought his first electric car in 2023.

  4. Mixed Factual 21 October 2023
    “they are safe in the presence of humans.”

    The warehouse mobile robots built by Brooks's current startup are safe in the presence of humans.

  5. Mostly true Factual 21 October 2023
    “I have reported about particular rides, that I or others have taken, when I think that the vehicles have done something for which a human driver would somehow be sanctioned if they had done the same…”

    Brooks said he has reported on particular autonomous vehicle rides, his or others', when he thought the vehicles had done something for which a human driver would somehow be sanctioned.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.