Ackman said that in response to the June 2022 CPI print, short-term fed funds futures moved upward, implying a peak fed funds rate of 3.68% by December 2022, then cuts to 2.9% by January 2024.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Judged as of 13–14 July 2022 (the June 2022 CPI was released 13 July). True: fed funds futures prices just after that CPI release imply a peak rate of about 3.68% (within roughly ±0.10 percentage points) around December 2022, and a fall to about 2.9% (within roughly ±0.15 percentage points) by about January 2024, and they had moved up in response to the release. Mostly true: the general shape (a peak around end-2022 followed by cuts) and the rough levels match, but one figure or date is a little further off. Mixed: one of the two implied levels or dates matches and the other clearly does not. Mostly false: futures showed a different path, e.g. a much lower or later peak, or no cuts priced by early 2024. False: the futures data contradict the described pricing.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (2)
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E1 CPI Inflation Hit a 40-Year High, but the Dollar is Still King Swan Bitcoin (Swan Private Market Update) · 22 July 2022
“Furthermore, federal fund futures markets are now implying a peak federal funds rate of 3.68% in December 2022 followed by a pause in rate hikes in January 2023, and then a return to rate cuts in late 2023 — early 2024.”
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E2 CPI Inflation Hit a 40-Year High, but the Dollar is Still King Swan Bitcoin (Swan Private Market Update) · 22 July 2022
“The high CPI print caused the market to immediately shift its focus to the Federal Reserve.”
Reasoning
E1 is an independent market update published after the June 2022 CPI release. It says fed funds futures implied a peak rate of 3.68% in December 2022, a pause in January 2023 and cuts in late 2023 to early 2024, which matches the claimed peak and the general shape of the path. E2 says the high CPI print immediately shifted the market's focus to the Federal Reserve. Neither source confirms the specific 2.9% level by January 2024, and neither explicitly says futures moved upward after the release, so the claim is only partly verified.
Cite this claim
Bill Ackman, “Ackman said that in response to the June 2022 CPI print, short-term fed funds futures moved upward, implying a peak fed funds rate of 3.68% by December 2022, then cuts to 2.9% by January 2024.” (said 14 July 2022). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_b1c3d82596bc, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_b1c3d82596bc
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
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