ClaimsPeter Thiel

“The United States eventually would become more secular and materialist”

Peter Thiel, essay author 2007 The Straussian Moment (gwern.net (PDF))

Factual Philosophy, ethics and society

The United States became more secular and materialist over time, though most citizens continued to call themselves Christians.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

Judged as of 2007, using trends up to then (e.g. mid-20th century to 2007). There are three parts: (1) the US became more secular (falling religious affiliation or attendance, rising 'nones', per Gallup, GSS, ARIS or Pew); (2) it became more materialist (e.g. rising consumption, or survey evidence of greater emphasis on wealth and material goods); (3) most Americans still called themselves Christians. TRUE: all three are supported by survey or statistical data. MOSTLY TRUE: (1) and (3) are clearly supported and (2) is plausibly but only loosely supported. MIXED: one of (1) or (2) is contradicted by the data, while (3) holds. MOSTLY FALSE: (3) holds but both secularisation and materialism trends are unsupported or contradicted. FALSE: most Americans did not identify as Christian, or the data show the US becoming more religious and not more materialist.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Survey: Non-Religious Americans on the Rise in Every State The Christian Post · 9 March 2009

    “shows that the percentage of Americans claiming no religion, which jumped from 8.2 percent in 1990 to 14.2 in 2001, has now increased to 15 percent.”
  2. E2 Survey: Non-Religious Americans on the Rise in Every State The Christian Post · 9 March 2009

    “Meanwhile, the percentage of Christians in America has declined from 76.7 in 2001 to 76 percent, down from 86.2 percent in the 1990s.”
  3. E3 The "New Normal" For the U.S. Economy: What Will It Be? | Brookings Brookings Institution · 9 March 2022

    “Personal consumption rose to 64.6 percent in the 1980s, 67.3 percent in the 1990s, and an astounding 69.8 percent between 2001 and 2008.”
  4. E4 Long-Term Gallup Poll Trends: A Portrait of American Public Opinion Through the Century Gallup · 20 December 1999

    “While the measure most probably is not a precise indicator of the exact number of people who attend church on specific weeks, the fact that it has remained so constant over the years is an important indicator of the stability of a broad attitudinal indicator of religiosity in the American population.”

Reasoning

E1 shows that Americans reporting no religion rose from 8.2% in 1990 to 14.2% in 2001. E2 shows that the Christian share fell from 86.2% to 76.7% over the same period but remained a clear majority. Together these support part (1), growing secularism, and part (3), that most Americans still called themselves Christian, although E4 reports that church attendance stayed stable over the long term. E3 shows personal consumption rising across the decades to 2008. The quote does not say what that percentage measures, so it only loosely supports part (2), growing materialism.

Cite this claim

Peter Thiel, “The United States became more secular and materialist over time, though most citizens continued to call themselves Christians.” (said 2007). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_af156235cc3e, method 0.1.0+3e03e2df, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_af156235cc3e

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Peter Thiel, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Peter Thiel

  1. Mostly true Factual April 2024
    “Schmitt got somewhat entangled with the Nazis.”

    Carl Schmitt became somewhat entangled with the Nazis and later distanced himself from them.

  2. Mostly true Factual April 2024
    “It was, in some ways, my formative political idea as a teenager”

    Anti-communism was in some ways Peter Thiel's formative political idea as a teenager in the late 1970s and early 1980s.

  3. Mostly true Factual April 2024
    “Girard liked to always say that Christ was the first political atheist”

    René Girard often said that Christ was the first political atheist.

  4. Mostly true Factual April 2024
    “It’s much harder to exit the United States than it was 20, 30 years ago.”

    It is much harder to exit the United States than it was 20 to 30 years ago.

  5. Resolved true Factual April 2024
    “I was extremely influenced by the Reese-Mogg–Davidson book, 1997,”

    Peter Thiel was extremely influenced by the 1997 book The Sovereign Individual by Rees-Mogg and Davidson.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.