Over the past century, these instruments destroyed the purchasing power of investors in many countries even as interest and principal were paid on time.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
"These instruments" are currency-denominated investments such as bonds, bank deposits and money-market instruments. True: historical data show that over about 1900–2011, investors in many countries (several, not one or two) suffered large real losses on such instruments through inflation, in cases where issuers paid nominal interest and principal on schedule. Mostly true: real losses occurred in many countries, but in a notable share of the examples the losses came partly through default rather than through on-time payment. Mostly false: severe real losses on paid-in-full instruments happened in only a few countries. False: real returns on these instruments were generally preserved or positive across countries.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (12)
-
E1 Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2012 Credit Suisse (authors Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh, Mike Staunton) · 2012
“Figure 3 shows that the long-term real return on Belgium equities was an annualized 2.4% as compared to bonds and bills, which gave a real return of –0.1% and –0.4% respectively.”
-
E2 Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2012 Credit Suisse (authors Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh, Mike Staunton) · 2012
“Figure 1 shows that, over the last 112 years, the real value of equities, with income reinvested, grew by a factor of 14.1 as compared to 0.9 for bonds and 0.7 for bills.”
-
E3 Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2012 Credit Suisse (authors Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh, Mike Staunton) · 2012
“Over the 112 years from 1900 to 2011, Figure 3 shows that the real return on the world index was 5.4% per year for equities, and 1.7% per year for bonds.”
-
E4 Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2012 Credit Suisse (authors Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh, Mike Staunton) · 2012
“Since 1900, US equities and US bonds have given real returns of 6.2% and 2.0%, respectively.”
-
E5 Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2012 (Belgium country profile, as reproduced in a regulatory filing; the PDF has no title field) Credit Suisse / Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh, Mike Staunton (Yearbook); reproduced in a Régie de l'énergie du Québec filing · 2012
“Figure 3 shows that the long-term real return on Belgium equities was an annualized 2.4% as compared to bonds and bills, which gave a real return of –0.1% and –0.4% respectively.”
-
E6 Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2012 (France country profile, as reproduced in a regulatory filing; the PDF has no title field) Credit Suisse / Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh, Mike Staunton (Yearbook); reproduced in a Régie de l'énergie du Québec filing · 2012
“Figure 3 shows that the long-term real return on French equities was an annualized 2.9% as compared to bonds and bills, which gave a real return of –0.1% and –2.8% respectively.”
-
E7 Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2012 (Germany country profile, as reproduced in a regulatory filing; the PDF has no title field) Credit Suisse / Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh, Mike Staunton (Yearbook); reproduced in a Régie de l'énergie du Québec filing · 2012
“Figure 3 shows that the long-term real return on German equities was an annualized 2.9% as compared to bonds and bills, which gave a real return of –1.8% and –2.4% respectively.”
-
E8 Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2012 (World section, as reproduced in a regulatory filing; the PDF has no title field) Credit Suisse / Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh, Mike Staunton (Yearbook); reproduced in a Régie de l'énergie du Québec filing · 2012
“Figure 3 shows that the long-term real return on World equities was an annualized 5.4% as compared to bonds and US bills, which gave a real return of 1.7% and 0.9% respectively.”
-
E9 GFD Guide to Total Returns Finaeon (Bryan Taylor, Chief Economist) · 17 November 2020
“In real terms, Italian fixed-income investors on average lost money every single year between 1925 and 2001. Most of this resulted from the inflation of the 1940s when fixed-income investors lost, on average, 30% per annum after inflation.”
-
E10 GFD Guide to Total Returns Finaeon (Bryan Taylor, Chief Economist) · 17 November 2020
“Starting in 1940, fixed income investors lost money in real terms as they entered into a 40-year bear market of rising inflation and interest rates. The bear market in fixed income investments that occurred between 1940 and 1981 was a global phenomenon.”
-
E11 GFD Guide to Total Returns Finaeon (Bryan Taylor, Chief Economist) · 17 November 2020
“As in other countries, fixed-income investors barely kept up with inflation between 1939 and 1979, but they have received strong real returns since 1980.”
-
E12 GFD Guide to Total Returns Finaeon (Bryan Taylor, Chief Economist) · 17 November 2020
“In 1948, a currency reform introduced the Deutsche Mark, but reduced the value of all financial assets by 90%.”
Reasoning
The evidence shows negative long-term real returns on bonds and bills in Belgium, France and Germany (E5–E7) and large real losses for Italian fixed-income investors (E9), but no item shows whether issuers paid interest and principal on schedule, and none mentions default. That leaves the criteria's distinction between true, mostly true and mostly false unsettled, with only Germany's 1948 currency reform (E12) as an example of loss beyond inflation.
Cite this claim
Warren Buffett, “Over the past century, these instruments destroyed the purchasing power of investors in many countries even as interest and principal were paid on time.” (said 9 February 2012). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_aca4cf190096, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_aca4cf190096
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More factual claims by Warren Buffett
-
Mostly true
“But now we’ve created a structure that didn’t exist when he came in 1986.”
Berkshire has created an insurance structure that did not exist when Ajit Jain joined in 1986.
-
Mostly true
“we offered a solution in a couple of days to something that was getting close to the brink.”
-
Mixed
“big businesses, generally have done very well about travel and entertainment”
-
Mostly true
“the big ones have done terrifically”
Large food manufacturers have done terrifically during the pandemic.
-
Resolved true
“we've shut down a lot of people in this, in this particular induced recession and others are prospering”
The pandemic-induced recession has shut down many people's businesses while others are prospering.
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.