ClaimsWarren Buffett

“Our stock price will move capriciously, occasionally falling 50% or so as has happened three times in 60 years under present management.”

Warren Buffett, chairman, in Berkshire news release 10 November 2025 Berkshire news release Nov 10, 2025 (Thanksgiving letter) (Berkshire Hathaway) archived copy

Factual Their own work or organisation

Berkshire's stock price has fallen about 50% three times in 60 years under present management.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Count the peak-to-trough declines in Berkshire's share price of roughly 50% (about 45% or more) from 1965, when present management took over, to 2025-11-10. True: there were exactly three such declines. Mostly true: there were three declines, but one of them falls slightly short of 50% (for example about 44–49%) while still fitting 'about 50%', or a detail such as the 60-year span is slightly off. Mixed: there were two or four such declines. Mostly false: the count is clearly different, for example one or five or more, though large drawdowns did occur. False: Berkshire's stock never fell anywhere near 50% in that period.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (3)

  1. E1 Berkshire Hathaway Approaches Record High The Rational Walk · 1 February 2013

    “Only fifteen months later, the stock closed at $72,400 on March 9, 2009, a decline of over 52 percent from its record high.”
  2. E2 www.berkshirehathaway.com · letters · 2017ltrprintmgr file - Berkshire Hathaway Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Own record

    “Period March 1973-January 1975 10/2/87-10/27/87 6/19/98-3/10/2000 9/19/08-3/5/09 High 93 4,250 80,900 147,000 Low Percentage Decrease 38 2,675 41,300 72,400 (59.1%) (37.1%) (48.9%) (50.7%)”
  3. E3 www.berkshirehathaway.com · letters · 2017ltrprintmgr file - Berkshire Hathaway Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Own record

    “In the next 53 years our shares (and others) will experience declines resembling those in the table.”

Reasoning

The count of three declines of about 50% comes only from the table in Berkshire's own 2017 letter [E2], which runs to 2009 and is not independent; the only independent item [E1] confirms just the 2008–2009 decline. No evidence covers the period from 2018 to 2025-11-10, so the count over the whole period in the criteria is not settled.

Cite this claim

Warren Buffett, “Berkshire's stock price has fallen about 50% three times in 60 years under present management.” (said 10 November 2025). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_ab5ca57d6c6d, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_ab5ca57d6c6d

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Warren Buffett, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Warren Buffett

  1. Resolved true Factual 18 September 2026
    “Howard has been a Berkshire Director for 33 years.”

    Howard Buffett has been a Berkshire director for 33 years.

  2. Resolved true Factual 18 September 2026
    “My son, Howard, will succeed me as Chairman.”

    Howard Buffett succeeds Warren Buffett as Berkshire's Chairman.

  3. Resolved true Factual 18 September 2026
    “I have served Berkshire since 1965.”

    Warren Buffett has served Berkshire since 1965.

  4. Mostly true Factual 2025
    “She and her CNBC crew do a great job of both transmitting our meetings worldwide and archiving much Berkshire-related material.”

    Becky Quick and her CNBC crew transmit Berkshire's meetings worldwide and archive much Berkshire-related material.

  5. Resolved true Factual 2025
    “I was lucky enough to get an education at three fine universities.”

    Warren Buffett received an education at three universities.

All of them

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