ClaimsNassim Taleb

“Before Europeans discovered Australia, we had no reason to believe that swans could be any other color but white.”

Nassim Taleb, author, interview answer 12 January 2009 Taking Improbable Events Seriously: An Interview with the Author of 'The Black Swan' (CBS News) archived copy

Factual Philosophy, ethics and society

Before Europeans discovered Australia, Europeans had no reason to believe swans could be any colour other than white, and on seeing black swans they revised their beliefs.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

Judge on the historical record. True: before Europeans encountered Australian black swans (Dutch voyages, notably de Vlamingh in 1697), Europeans had no credible observations or reports of non-white swans and treated swans as white (e.g. 'rara avis... nigroque simillima cygno' used as a figure for the impossible), and after the sightings they accepted that black swans exist. Mostly true: this broadly holds but with a minor slip, e.g. Australia was 'discovered' by Europeans (1606) some decades before black swans were reported, or there were a few scattered earlier hints. Mostly false: there were known European or earlier reports of black swans that were widely available before the Australian sightings, so the claim overstates. False: Europeans already knew of black or non-white swans before reaching Australia and generally accepted that they existed.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Symbols of Western Australia Government of Western Australia (Department of the Premier and Cabinet) · 27 April 2020

    “However, it was not until the voyages of Dutch explorers to the Great South Land in the 17th century that the existence of Black Swans was reported to the rest of the world. Until then, people in Europe believed that all swans were white.”
  2. E2 Friday essay: a rare bird — how Europeans got the black swan so wrong The Conversation (article by David Haworth, Monash University) · 10 June 2021

    “In 1636, Dutch mariner Antonie Caen observed black birds “as large as swans” at sea off Bernier Island — probably the first recorded European sighting.”
  3. E3 Friday essay: a rare bird — how Europeans got the black swan so wrong The Conversation (article by David Haworth, Monash University) · 10 June 2021

    “The expressions made sense because Europeans assumed, based on their observations, that all swans were white.”
  4. E4 Friday essay: a rare bird — how Europeans got the black swan so wrong The Conversation (article by David Haworth, Monash University) · 10 June 2021

    “Reports of the black swan made it back to the Netherlands and then to England, but it took another century for its mythical status to dissipate completely.”

Reasoning

A Western Australian government page (E1) says black swans were not reported to the rest of the world until the Dutch voyages of the 17th century, and that until then people in Europe believed all swans were white. An independent essay (E3) says the old European 'black swan' expressions made sense because Europeans assumed, from what they had seen, that all swans were white. It describes a 1636 sighting of black birds 'as large as swans' as probably the first recorded European sighting (E2), so the sightings came during the Dutch voyages rather than at the very moment of 'discovery'. The same essay says it took another century for the black swan's mythical status to fade completely (E4), so Europeans did revise their beliefs, but slowly. That is a minor qualification to the claim.

Cite this claim

Nassim Taleb, “Before Europeans discovered Australia, Europeans had no reason to believe swans could be any colour other than white, and on seeing black swans they revised their beliefs.” (said 12 January 2009). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_a57b0a5b49a0, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_a57b0a5b49a0

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More factual claims by Nassim Taleb

  1. Mostly true Factual 30 March 2024
    “Jerusalem is not mentioned even once in the Pentateuch.”

    The city of Jerusalem is not mentioned even once in the Pentateuch.

  2. Mixed Factual November 2021
    “Yes, Christianity glorifies the poor: but it took seventeen centuries from “the eye of the needle” in Matthew 19:24 to the conception of organized communism and various theories of social equality.”

    It took about seventeen centuries from the 'eye of the needle' passage in Matthew 19:24 to the conception of organized communism and theories of social equality.

  3. Mixed Factual November 2021
    “Christianity is the vehicle by which a separation of church and state was accomplished”

    Christianity was the vehicle by which separation of church and state was accomplished.

  4. Mixed Factual November 2021
    “Europe is neither a continent, nor a language group, nor a race”

    Europe is neither a continent, a language group nor a race, since over 100 million EU citizens are olive-skinned and hardly distinguishable from other Mediterraneans.

  5. Mostly false Factual November 2021
    “Almost as worrisome, upon Covid, some were openly calling for geronticide and letting “fat people” die.”

    During Covid, some people openly called for geronticide and for letting 'fat people' die.

All of them

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