In the three months after January 2018, the US economy will destroy more jobs than the World Economic Forum projected AI would destroy over the next five years.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
What would count as true or false
Judge at the end of roughly February–April 2018 (three months after the 1 January 2018 statement). The quantity is gross US job destruction in that quarter, measured by BLS Business Employment Dynamics (BED) gross job losses for the quarter closest to that window (Q1 or Q2 2018), with JOLTS total separations as a secondary check. Compare it with the World Economic Forum's projection of jobs lost to AI/automation over five years (the 2016 'Future of Jobs' report: about 7.1 million jobs lost gross, about 5.1 million net, across 15 economies, 2015–2020). TRUE: the US gross job losses for that three-month period exceed the WEF's five-year projected job losses under both readings (gross and net). MOSTLY TRUE: they exceed the WEF figure Andreessen apparently meant, or the net figure, but not the larger gross figure. MOSTLY FALSE: they exceed the WEF figure only if job destruction is defined more broadly than gross job losses (e.g., all separations including quits). FALSE: under any reasonable measure, US job destruction in those three months was below the WEF's five-year projection.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 Quarterly Data Series on Business Employment Dynamics News Release U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · 7 November 2018
“Over this period, gross job losses from closing and contracting private-sector establishments were 6.7 million, a decrease of 181,000 jobs from the previous quarter. The difference between the number of gross job gains and the number of gross job losses yielded a net employment gain of 740,000 jobs in the private sector during the first quarter of 2018.”
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E2 [PDF] Business Employment Dynamics - Second Quarter 2018 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · 30 January 2019
“Over this period, gross job losses from closing and contracting private-sector establishments were 7.2 million, an increase of 536,000 jobs from the previous quarter. The difference between the number of gross job gains and the number of gross job losses yielded a net employment gain of 437,000 jobs in the private sector during the second quarter of 2018.”
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E3 What is the future of your job? | World Economic Forum World Economic Forum · 18 January 2016
“Current trends could lead to a net employment impact of more than 5.1 million jobs lost to disruptive labour market changes over the period 2015-2020, with a total loss of 7.1 million jobs”
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E4 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey News Release U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · 16 March 2018
“Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.6 million and 5.4 million, respectively.”
Reasoning
BLS Business Employment Dynamics data put US private-sector gross job losses at 6.7 million in the first quarter of 2018 (E1). That is the quarter closest to the three months after the 1 January 2018 statement. The WEF projected a net loss of more than 5.1 million jobs and a total (gross) loss of 7.1 million over 2015–2020 (E3). So the Q1 figure beats the net projection but falls short of the gross one, which matches the criteria's "mostly true" case. Q2 2018 gross losses of 7.2 million (E2) would beat both figures, but that quarter mostly falls after the three-month window.
Cite this claim
Marc Andreessen, “In the three months after January 2018, the US economy will destroy more jobs than the World Economic Forum projected AI would destroy over the next five years.” (said 1 January 2018). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_a4c795248168, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_a4c795248168
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
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