Musk said Tesla's current schedule is to start production toward the end of 2025, sometime in the second half, while noting that he is often optimistic regarding time.

The claim refers to the next-generation vehicle discussed on Tesla's Q4 2023 earnings call (24 January 2024). Promised outcome: series production of that vehicle starts by 31 December 2025, with the target window being the second half of 2025. Musk's caveat about being optimistic does not change the test. True: Tesla's filings, shareholder letters or credible reports show production of that next-generation vehicle starting by 31 December 2025, meaning regular production of saleable units and not only prototypes or validation builds. Mostly true: production started in the second half of 2025 as claimed, but a minor detail differs, such as the factory or the exact model name. Mostly false: by 31 December 2025 only pilot or prototype builds existed; or production started after 31 December 2025; or Tesla started production only of a different product (such as a cheaper trim of an existing model) in place of the new-platform vehicle. False: Tesla's reports or credible dated accounts from after the deadline show the vehicle had not entered production by the end of 2025, or that the program was cancelled or indefinitely delayed.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Tesla Model 2 release date: the $25,000 Tesla promises twoweeks.lol · 12 June 2026

   “No all-new low-cost Tesla platform began production in 2025. Tesla instead launched cheaper 'Standard' trims of the Model Y and Model 3 in October 2025 on existing lines.”

2. E2 Elon Musk's late and unfulfilled Tesla promises - The Economic Times The Economic Times · 4 November 2026

   “Reuters exclusively reported last year that Tesla scrapped its plans for the low-cost car sometimes described as the Model 2.”

3. E3 Elon Musk's late and unfulfilled Tesla promises - The Economic Times The Economic Times · 4 November 2026

   “Tesla subsequently said it would create affordable cars that would be built on current product lines, rather than the new vehicle previously envisioned.”

4. E4 Tesla delays new "affordable model" as it ramps up Model Y to cash in on last rebates The Driven · 24 July 2025

   “Vaibhav Taneja, Tesla's CFO, did confirm that the production of the affordable model had begun, but unveiling and mass production of the model were expected in Q4 of 2025.”

E1 is dated after the deadline and states that no all-new low-cost Tesla platform began production in 2025. It adds that Tesla instead launched cheaper 'Standard' trims of the Model Y and Model 3 on existing lines in October 2025. E2 and E3 report that Tesla dropped its plans for the low-cost next-generation car and switched to affordable cars built on current product lines. E4's mention of production of an 'affordable model' starting fits those cheaper trims, not the new-platform vehicle, so the evidence shows the promised vehicle did not enter production by 31 December 2025.