ClaimsWarren Buffett

“In 2000, however, we had an underwriting loss of $1.6 billion, which gave us a float cost of 6%.”

Warren Buffett, Berkshire chairman, in annual letter 28 February 2001 Chairman's Letter (2000) (Berkshire Hathaway) archived copy

Factual Their own work or organisation

In 2000 Berkshire had an insurance underwriting loss of $1.6 billion, giving a float cost of 6%.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

The evidence is the person's or their organisation's own records.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Judge against Berkshire's 2000 annual report. True: the reported insurance underwriting loss for 2000 was about $1.6 billion (roughly $1.55–1.65 billion, on the basis Buffett used, before tax), and the cost of float given was 6%. Formal restatements govern. Mostly true: one figure is slightly off (loss within about $1.5–1.7 billion, or cost within 5.5–6.5%). Mixed: one figure matches and the other is materially wrong. Mostly false: both figures are noticeably off, though there was a loss. False: Berkshire reported no underwriting loss in 2000, or figures far from those claimed.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Consolidated Financial Statements Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Own record

    “| Insurance losses and loss adjustment expenses | 17,332 | 12,518 | 4,040 | | Insurance underwriting expenses | 3,602 | 3,220 | 1,184 |”
  2. E2 Consolidated Financial Statements Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Own record

    “| Insurance premiums earned | $19,343 | $14,306 | $ 5,481 |”
  3. E3 a70817e10-k.txt U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (EDGAR, Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Form 10-K for fiscal year ended December 31, 2000)

    “General Re ** ...................................................... (1,224) (1,184) --”
  4. E4 a70817e10-k.txt U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (EDGAR, Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Form 10-K for fiscal year ended December 31, 2000)

    “The aggregate float was approximately $27.9 billion at December 31, 2000 and $25.3”

Reasoning

Berkshire's consolidated statements in the 2000 annual report (E1, E2) give insurance premiums earned of $19,343 million, against losses and loss adjustment expenses of $17,332 million and underwriting expenses of $3,602 million. In the first column, which is the latest-year column, that works out to a pre-tax underwriting loss of about $1,591 million. That is within the $1.55–1.65 billion range for "true". The 2000 Form 10-K (E4) gives aggregate float of approximately $27.9 billion at December 31, 2000, followed by a figure of $25.3 whose unit and date are cut off in the quote. The loss divided by average float of about $26.6 billion is roughly 6.0%, which matches the claimed float cost. The quotes do not label the year columns or state the 6% directly, but the column order and the arithmetic both fit the claim.

Cite this claim

Warren Buffett, “In 2000 Berkshire had an insurance underwriting loss of $1.6 billion, giving a float cost of 6%.” (said 28 February 2001). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_9f04937cff9e, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_9f04937cff9e

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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All of them

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