ClaimsBill Gates

“The last time a germ game was done in the United States was back in 2001, and it didn't go so well.”

Bill Gates, giving TED talk 2015 Transcript of Bill Gates TED Talk 2015: The next outbreak? We're not ready (Rev) archived copy

Factual Biosecurity

The last germ-game simulation in the United States was in 2001 and it did not go well.

Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

Judge as of 2015. The claim has two parts: (a) the most recent US germ-game simulation (a war-game-style exercise of a pandemic or biological attack, such as the June 2001 'Dark Winter' smallpox exercise) took place in 2001; (b) that exercise went badly, meaning it showed serious failures in response, containment or coordination. True: both parts hold, and no comparable US-run pandemic or bioterror simulation took place between 2002 and 2015. Mostly true: the 2001 exercise went badly and later US exercises were minor or narrow (e.g. single-agency drills), not comparable high-level simulations. Mixed: the 2001 exercise went badly, but one or more comparable US simulations took place later (e.g. TOPOFF exercises with biological scenarios, Atlantic Storm 2005), so the 'last time' part fails. Mostly false: there was no notable 2001 exercise that went poorly but there was some smaller one, or several comparable later exercises clearly contradict 'last'. False: no such 2001 simulation existed, or its documented outcome was not poor.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 America’s Pandemic War Games Don’t End Well Foreign Policy · 1 April 2020

    “In 2005, “Atlantic Storm,” organized by the Center for Biosecurity at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, simulated an international outbreak of a smallpox pandemic (as opposed to the domestic smallpox terrorism attack stipulated by Dark Winter).”
  2. E2 Global Mercury: An International Bioterrorism Exercise U.S. Department of State · 8 September 2003

    “The Department of State will participate with the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and the Health Ministries of seven other member nations of the Global Health Security Action Group in a tabletop Bioterrorism Exercise from September 8 - 10, 2003.”
  3. E3 Operation Dark Winter - Wikipedia Wikipedia · 15 July 2005

    “In the absence of sufficient preparation, Dark Winter revealed that the lack of sufficient vaccine or drugs to prevent the spread of disease severely limited management options.”
  4. E4 Shining Light on “Dark Winter” Clinical Infectious Diseases (Oxford Academic) · 1 April 2002

    “On 22–23 June 2001, the Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Strategies, in collaboration with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Analytic Services Institute for Homeland Security, and the Oklahoma National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism, held a senior-level exercise entitled “Dark Winter” that simulated a covert smallpox attack on the United States.”

Reasoning

E4 confirms that "Dark Winter", a senior-level simulation of a covert smallpox attack on the United States, was held on 22–23 June 2001. E3 says the exercise showed that a lack of vaccine and drugs severely limited management options, so the claim that it went badly holds. However, comparable simulations took place later. E1 describes "Atlantic Storm" in 2005, organized by the Center for Biosecurity at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, which simulated an international smallpox outbreak. E2 records a 2003 tabletop bioterrorism exercise, "Global Mercury", that included the US Department of Health and Human Services and the State Department. Because of these later exercises, the claim that 2001 was "the last time" fails.

Cite this claim

Bill Gates, “The last germ-game simulation in the United States was in 2001 and it did not go well.” (said 2015). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_9ee863b1ac70, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_9ee863b1ac70

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More factual claims by Bill Gates

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  3. Resolved true Factual February 2021
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  4. Mostly false Factual 10 February 2020
    “Thanks to major advances, an HIV-positive person receiving treatment now has the same expected lifespan as someone without HIV.”

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  5. Mostly true Factual 10 February 2020
    “For example, we were optimistic that vaginal gels could help prevent infection, but they weren’t effective at stopping transmission of the disease.”

    Vaginal gels were not effective at stopping HIV transmission, despite the foundation's optimism that they could prevent infection.

All of them

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