Rodney Brooks previously identified underestimating adoption time of new technologies as the seventh of seven deadly sins of predicting the future of AI.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
What would count as true or false
True if a piece Brooks published before 1 January 2018, such as his 2017 essay 'The Seven Deadly Sins of AI Predictions' or the blog version of it, lists as its seventh sin one about the speed of deployment, meaning that adoption of new technology takes longer than people expect. Mostly true if that sin appears in the list but is worded somewhat differently, or if the publication date or venue differs slightly. Mostly false if the sin is in the list but not seventh. False if no such list exists or it does not include this sin.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (3)
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E1 The Seven Deadly Sins of AI Predictions · Decision Management Community Decision Management Community · 10 October 2017
“7. Speed of deployment”
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E2 The Seven Deadly Sins of AI Predictions · Decision Management Community Decision Management Community · 10 October 2017
“Almost all innovations in robotics and AI take far, far, longer to be really widely deployed than people in the field and outside the field imagine.”
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E3 The Seven Deadly Sins of AI Predictions · Decision Management Community Decision Management Community · 10 October 2017
“On Oct. 6 Rodney Brooks published a paper with this title in the MIT Technology Review.”
Reasoning
An independent write-up dated 10 October 2017 says Brooks published an essay titled 'The Seven Deadly Sins of AI Predictions' in MIT Technology Review on 6 October [E3]. That write-up lists 'Speed of deployment' as the seventh item [E1]. It also quotes the essay saying that innovations in robotics and AI take far longer to be widely deployed than people imagine [E2]. Together these show that a list published before 1 January 2018 had the deployment-speed sin as its seventh entry, which meets the criteria for true.
Cite this claim
Rodney Brooks, “Rodney Brooks previously identified underestimating adoption time of new technologies as the seventh of seven deadly sins of predicting the future of AI.” (said 1 January 2018). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_9d03e1e11d1a, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_9d03e1e11d1a
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More factual claims by Rodney Brooks
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Mostly true
“But no, I had no idea it would be LLMs at the time of my correct prediction that something big would appear.”
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Mostly true
“I have spent my whole professional life developing robots and my companies have built more of them than anyone else”
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Resolved true
“I bought my first electric car this year.”
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Mixed
“they are safe in the presence of humans.”
The warehouse mobile robots built by Brooks's current startup are safe in the presence of humans.
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Mostly true
“I have reported about particular rides, that I or others have taken, when I think that the vehicles have done something for which a human driver would somehow be sanctioned if they had done the same…”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.