ClaimsEliezer Yudkowsky

“Someone should know that when an expert says the probability is "a million to one" without using actuarial data or calculations from a precise, precisely confirmed model, the calibration is probably more like twenty to one (though this is not an exact conversion).”

Eliezer Yudkowsky 2008 Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgment of global risks (UC Berkeley (hosted))

Not checkable

Someone should know that when an expert says the probability is "a million to one" without using actuarial data or calculations from a…

Not checkable An opinion, value judgement or statement with nothing to check.

Not checkable: An opinion, value judgement or statement with nothing to check. Not scored.

Cite this claim

Eliezer Yudkowsky, “Someone should know that when an expert says the probability is "a million to one" without using actuarial data or calculations from a…” (said 2008). Verdict: not checkable. Reliability API, claim c_9b91ded5fa24, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_9b91ded5fa24

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Eliezer Yudkowsky, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.