ClaimsEliezer Yudkowsky

“Overconfidence applies forcefully to the domain of planning, where it is known as the planning fallacy.”

Eliezer Yudkowsky, paper author 2008 Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgment of global risks (UC Berkeley (hosted))

Factual Science and research methods

Overconfidence applies strongly to planning, where it is known as the planning fallacy.

Not researched Checkable, but outside the sample that was researched.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

Cite this claim

Eliezer Yudkowsky, “Overconfidence applies strongly to planning, where it is known as the planning fallacy.” (said 2008). Verdict: not researched. Reliability API, claim c_982d35d3074f, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_982d35d3074f

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

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More factual claims by Eliezer Yudkowsky

  1. Mostly true Factual September 2025
    “And that in turn provided a lot of indirect support for the atomic theory.”

    Conservation of mass provided a lot of indirect support for atomic theory.

  2. Mostly true Factual September 2025
    “The conservation of mass was one of the first hints that things were being rearranged rather than created or destroyed.”

    The conservation of mass was one of the first hints that things are rearranged rather than created or destroyed.

  3. Resolved true Factual September 2025
    “The way that if you burn something inside a sealed glass vessel, it didn't change weight.”

    Burning a substance inside a sealed glass vessel does not change the total weight.

  4. Mostly true Factual 26 December 2020
    “that ignorance is a mental rather than physical property.”

    E. T. Jaynes said many times that probability is ignorance and that ignorance is a mental rather than physical property, and Yudkowsky repeated this often.

  5. Mixed Factual 2008
    “General intelligence is a between-species difference, a complex adaptation, and a human universal found in all known cultures.”

    General intelligence is a between-species difference, a complex adaptation, and a human universal found in all known cultures.

All of them

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