Travel experienced about 40 years of stagnation, followed by more advances in the last 5 years.
Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
What would count as true or false
This is a rough, hedged claim. Judge the core: travel (speed and ease, especially commercial air travel) improved little for about 40 years (roughly the 1970s to the 2010s). Judge the add-on in the proposition, that there were more advances in the five years before 2019, as a secondary detail. True if evidence such as commercial cruising speeds, typical flight times, or the lack of major new travel technologies (for example the end of Concorde) shows broad stagnation over roughly 35–45 years, and there were notable advances around 2014–2019 (for example ride-hailing, booking and mapping apps, or e-scooters). Mostly true if the stagnation holds but the recent advances are thin or debatable. Mixed if the stagnation applies only to some measures (speed) while others (cost, access, safety) improved a great deal, so that 'stagnation' is about half right. Mostly false if travel improved substantially over that period on most measures, so the claim rests only on narrow speed data. False if evidence shows steady, major travel improvements throughout the period, including in speed.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 Airplane Speeds Have Stagnated for 40 Years Mercatus Center · 20 July 2016
“The time required to fly from Los Angeles to New York or across the Atlantic Ocean is no different than it was 40 years ago for the average airline passenger.”
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E2 Airplane Speeds Have Stagnated for 40 Years Mercatus Center · 20 July 2016
“Since 1973, airplane manufacturers have innovated on margins other than speed, and as a result, commercial flight is safer and cheaper than it was 40 years ago. But commercial flight isn’t any faster—in fact, today’s flights travel at less than half the Concorde’s speed.”
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E3 The Return of Supersonic - Niskanen Center Niskanen Center · 19 June 2017
“Yet aviation speeds have stagnated in the years since, and by some measures they have slowed.”
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E4 Economic productivity in the air transportation industry: multifactor and labor productivity trends, 1990–2014 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Monthly Labor Review) · 3 September 2017
“Between 1997 and 2014, multifactor productivity gains in air transportation were the second highest among 63 industries and represented a considerable share of the nation’s total multifactor productivity growth.”
Reasoning
E1 and E3 show that commercial flight times and speeds have barely changed in about 40 years, and E2 notes that today's flights are slower than Concorde. That supports the claim of stagnation in speed. However, E2 also says commercial flight has become safer and cheaper since 1973, and E4 reports that air transportation had the second-highest multifactor productivity growth of 63 industries between 1997 and 2014. So "stagnation" holds for speed but not for cost, safety or productivity, which fits the criteria for mixed. None of the evidence covers the secondary claim of advances in 2014–2019.
Cite this claim
Tyler Cowen, “Travel experienced about 40 years of stagnation, followed by more advances in the last 5 years.” (said 18 July 2019). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_9751c642838c, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_9751c642838c
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
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Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.