Chinese researchers had just published a paper on a model they built that is sort of close to GPT-4 quality.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Judged as of 2023-09-02. The claim is that Chinese researchers had recently published (within roughly the preceding weeks to few months) a paper on their own model 'sort of close to' GPT-4 quality. True: such a paper was published in roughly mid-2023 (for example on Qwen, Baichuan, InternLM or GLM) and reported benchmark results approaching GPT-4 on major evaluations. Mostly true: the paper exists and is recent, but its claims of being close to GPT-4 were somewhat overstated, or it matched GPT-4 only on some benchmarks, in line with the hedged 'sort of close'. Mixed: a recent paper exists, but the model was clearly closer to GPT-3.5 level. Mostly false: no recent paper, or the model was clearly well below GPT-4, with only isolated benchmark claims. False: no such Chinese model paper existed around that time.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (7)
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E1 Baichuan2/README_EN.md at main · baichuan-inc/Baichuan2 GitHub (baichuan-inc) · 31 August 2023
“Baichuan 2 achieved the best performance of its size on multiple authoritative Chinese, English, and multi-language general and domain-specific benchmarks.”
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E2 Baichuan2/README_EN.md at main · baichuan-inc/Baichuan2 GitHub (baichuan-inc) · 31 August 2023
“| | C-Eval | MMLU | CMMLU | Gaokao | AGIEval | BBH | | --------------------- | ---------- | -------- | --------- | ---------- | ----------- | ------- | | | 5-shot | 5-shot | 5-shot | 5-shot | 5-shot | 3-shot | | GPT-4 | 68.40 | 83.93 | 70.33 | 66.15 | 63.27 | 75.12 |”
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E3 Baichuan2/README_EN.md at main · baichuan-inc/Baichuan2 GitHub (baichuan-inc repository)
“journal={arXiv preprint arXiv:2309.10305}, url={https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.10305}, year={2023}”
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E4 Baichuan2/README_EN.md at main · baichuan-inc/Baichuan2 GitHub (baichuan-inc repository)
“[2023.12.29] 🎉🎉🎉 We have released Baichuan2-13B-Chat v2 version. In this version:”
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E5 Qwen-7B/README.md at main · cyente/Qwen-7B GitHub (fork of QwenLM/Qwen, the Alibaba Cloud Qwen project) · 14 August 2023
“2023.8.3 We release both Qwen-7B and Qwen-7B-Chat on ModelScope and Hugging Face. We also provide a technical memo for more details about the model, including training details and model performance.”
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E6 Qwen-7B/README.md at main · cyente/Qwen-7B GitHub (fork of QwenLM/Qwen, the Alibaba Cloud Qwen project) · 14 August 2023
“| Model | Tool Selection (Acc.↑) | Tool Input (Rouge-L↑) | False Positive Error↓ | |:------------|:----------------------:|:---------------------:|:---------------------:| | GPT-4 | 95% | 0.90 | 15% | | GPT-3.5 | 85% | 0.88 | 75% | | Qwen-7B | 99% | 0.89 | 9.7% |”
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E7 Qwen-7B/README.md at main · cyente/Qwen-7B GitHub (fork of QwenLM/Qwen, the Alibaba Cloud Qwen project) · 14 August 2023
“In general, Qwen-7B outperforms the baseline models of a similar model size, and even outperforms larger models of around 13B parameters, on a series of benchmark datasets, e.g., MMLU, C-Eval, GSM8K, HumanEval, and WMT22, CMMLU, etc.”
Reasoning
The evidence shows a Qwen-7B technical memo released on 2023-08-03 (E5) and a tool-use comparison in which Qwen-7B scores at or above GPT-4 on most measures (E6). No evidence item gives general benchmark scores for Qwen or Baichuan against GPT-4 (E2, E8), so the evidence cannot show whether the model was near GPT-4, at GPT-3.5 level, or well below.
Cite this claim
Marc Andreessen, “Chinese researchers had just published a paper on a model they built that is sort of close to GPT-4 quality.” (said 2 September 2023). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_944b946660db, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_944b946660db
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More factual claims by Marc Andreessen
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Mixed
“Basically, within less than 12 months, four or five Chinese companies have caught up to the industry front - line.”
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Mostly true
“It's completely open - source, and anyone can download and run it.”
The DeepSeek model is completely open-source and anyone can download and run it.
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Mostly true
“The idea of neural networks was explored by a small group of people for 80 years.”
Neural networks were explored by a small group of people for about 80 years.
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Mostly true
“When I was in college in the 1980s, AI was a niche field, and everyone thought it would never come true.”
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Resolved true
“If you track the capabilities of cutting - edge models over time, you'll find that after 6 or 12 months, there will be a small model with the same capabilities.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.