ClaimsMarc Andreessen

“Actually China, they just dropped a paper on a model that they've built, which is sort of close to GPT-4 quality.”

Marc Andreessen, venture capitalist, interviewee 2 September 2023 Marc Andreessen on Why AI Will Save the World (EconTalk) archived copy

Factual AI capabilities

Chinese researchers had just published a paper on a model they built that is sort of close to GPT-4 quality.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judged as of 2023-09-02. The claim is that Chinese researchers had recently published (within roughly the preceding weeks to few months) a paper on their own model 'sort of close to' GPT-4 quality. True: such a paper was published in roughly mid-2023 (for example on Qwen, Baichuan, InternLM or GLM) and reported benchmark results approaching GPT-4 on major evaluations. Mostly true: the paper exists and is recent, but its claims of being close to GPT-4 were somewhat overstated, or it matched GPT-4 only on some benchmarks, in line with the hedged 'sort of close'. Mixed: a recent paper exists, but the model was clearly closer to GPT-3.5 level. Mostly false: no recent paper, or the model was clearly well below GPT-4, with only isolated benchmark claims. False: no such Chinese model paper existed around that time.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (7)

  1. E1 Baichuan2/README_EN.md at main · baichuan-inc/Baichuan2 GitHub (baichuan-inc) · 31 August 2023

    “Baichuan 2 achieved the best performance of its size on multiple authoritative Chinese, English, and multi-language general and domain-specific benchmarks.”
  2. E2 Baichuan2/README_EN.md at main · baichuan-inc/Baichuan2 GitHub (baichuan-inc) · 31 August 2023

    “| | C-Eval | MMLU | CMMLU | Gaokao | AGIEval | BBH | | --------------------- | ---------- | -------- | --------- | ---------- | ----------- | ------- | | | 5-shot | 5-shot | 5-shot | 5-shot | 5-shot | 3-shot | | GPT-4 | 68.40 | 83.93 | 70.33 | 66.15 | 63.27 | 75.12 |”
  3. E3 Baichuan2/README_EN.md at main · baichuan-inc/Baichuan2 GitHub (baichuan-inc repository)

    “journal={arXiv preprint arXiv:2309.10305}, url={https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.10305}, year={2023}”
  4. E4 Baichuan2/README_EN.md at main · baichuan-inc/Baichuan2 GitHub (baichuan-inc repository)

    “[2023.12.29] 🎉🎉🎉 We have released Baichuan2-13B-Chat v2 version. In this version:”
  5. E5 Qwen-7B/README.md at main · cyente/Qwen-7B GitHub (fork of QwenLM/Qwen, the Alibaba Cloud Qwen project) · 14 August 2023

    “2023.8.3 We release both Qwen-7B and Qwen-7B-Chat on ModelScope and Hugging Face. We also provide a technical memo for more details about the model, including training details and model performance.”
  6. E6 Qwen-7B/README.md at main · cyente/Qwen-7B GitHub (fork of QwenLM/Qwen, the Alibaba Cloud Qwen project) · 14 August 2023

    “| Model | Tool Selection (Acc.↑) | Tool Input (Rouge-L↑) | False Positive Error↓ | |:------------|:----------------------:|:---------------------:|:---------------------:| | GPT-4 | 95% | 0.90 | 15% | | GPT-3.5 | 85% | 0.88 | 75% | | Qwen-7B | 99% | 0.89 | 9.7% |”
  7. E7 Qwen-7B/README.md at main · cyente/Qwen-7B GitHub (fork of QwenLM/Qwen, the Alibaba Cloud Qwen project) · 14 August 2023

    “In general, Qwen-7B outperforms the baseline models of a similar model size, and even outperforms larger models of around 13B parameters, on a series of benchmark datasets, e.g., MMLU, C-Eval, GSM8K, HumanEval, and WMT22, CMMLU, etc.”

Reasoning

The evidence shows a Qwen-7B technical memo released on 2023-08-03 (E5) and a tool-use comparison in which Qwen-7B scores at or above GPT-4 on most measures (E6). No evidence item gives general benchmark scores for Qwen or Baichuan against GPT-4 (E2, E8), so the evidence cannot show whether the model was near GPT-4, at GPT-3.5 level, or well below.

Cite this claim

Marc Andreessen, “Chinese researchers had just published a paper on a model they built that is sort of close to GPT-4 quality.” (said 2 September 2023). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_944b946660db, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_944b946660db

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Marc Andreessen, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Marc Andreessen

  1. Mixed Factual 7 January 2026
    “Basically, within less than 12 months, four or five Chinese companies have caught up to the industry front - line.”

    Within less than 12 months, four or five Chinese companies caught up to the frontier of the AI industry.

  2. Mostly true Factual 7 January 2026
    “It's completely open - source, and anyone can download and run it.”

    The DeepSeek model is completely open-source and anyone can download and run it.

  3. Mostly true Factual 7 January 2026
    “The idea of neural networks was explored by a small group of people for 80 years.”

    Neural networks were explored by a small group of people for about 80 years.

  4. Mostly true Factual 7 January 2026
    “When I was in college in the 1980s, AI was a niche field, and everyone thought it would never come true.”

    In the 1980s, when Andreessen was in college, AI was a niche field and everyone thought it would never come true.

  5. Resolved true Factual 7 January 2026
    “If you track the capabilities of cutting - edge models over time, you'll find that after 6 or 12 months, there will be a small model with the same capabilities.”

    Within 6 to 12 months of a frontier model's release, a small model with the same capabilities appears.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.