ClaimsMarc Andreessen

“The catalog of resources on the Internet will be supported by advertising in the future.”

Marc Andreessen, Netscape founder and COO June 1995 Smithsonian Oral and Video Histories: Marc Andreessen (Smithsonian) archived copy

Prediction Economics and markets

Catalogs of Internet resources will be supported by advertising in the future.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

What would count as true or false

The claim is that catalogs of Internet resources will be supported mainly by advertising. Such catalogs include web directories, portals and search engines that index and help people find online resources. TRUE: the dominant catalogs and search services after 1995 were funded mainly by advertising, for example Yahoo's directory and portal and Google Search. MOSTLY TRUE: advertising became a major funding source, but some leading catalogs relied substantially on other models. MOSTLY FALSE: advertising played a role, but the leading catalogs were funded mainly by subscriptions, licensing or other means. FALSE: Internet catalogs and search services were not supported by advertising in any significant way.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 [PDF] Web's Missing Links (Prepublication Draft) Thomas Haigh -- 1 Thomas Haigh (author's prepublication draft of a chapter for MIT Press, 2007) · 2007

    “Search sites and portals command the lion’s share of the world’s Internet advertising revenue, making them the most successful of all Internet information businesses.”
  2. E2 [PDF] Web's Missing Links (Prepublication Draft) Thomas Haigh -- 1 Thomas Haigh (author's prepublication draft of a chapter for MIT Press, 2007) · 2007

    “In contrast, subscription-based Web search services had little appeal, because the same service was always available free from other search engines.”
  3. E3 Surviving in Today's Search World - ClickZ ClickZ (internet.com) · 5 December 2001

    “The engines that don’t use paid inclusion are Google, Open Directory Project (ODP), and Northern Light, although Google provides AdWords as paid placement.”
  4. E4 Lear All About Our Directory ODP (static snapshot of the former DMOZ directory, run by former DMOZ editors) · 18 December 2018

    “The Yahoo! Directory shut down in 2014 in spite of charging a recurring annual fee of $299 and being one of the earliest web directories.”

Reasoning

A 2007 history chapter says search sites and portals take the largest share of the world's Internet advertising revenue, making them the most successful Internet information businesses (E1). The same chapter says subscription-based Web search had little appeal because free search engines offered the same service (E2). A 2001 report says Google provided AdWords paid placement (E3). However, the Yahoo! Directory charged an annual listing fee (E4), and the 2001 report describes paid inclusion at other engines (E3), so some catalogs leaned on other models, and no source gives a revenue breakdown showing advertising was the main funding source.

Cite this claim

Marc Andreessen, “Catalogs of Internet resources will be supported by advertising in the future.” (said June 1995). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_8d8c40f71527, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_8d8c40f71527

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More prediction claims by Marc Andreessen

  1. Mostly false Prediction June 1995
    “George Gilder's answer to this sort of question is that over time--let's say five to ten years--the Internet will essentially be free.”

    George Gilder predicts that within five to ten years the Internet will essentially be free.

  2. Mostly true Prediction 26 January 2025
    “They’re going to do as much as they can through executive orders, and then they’re going to do legislation and regulatory changes for the rest.”

    The incoming Trump administration will do as much as it can through executive orders and then use legislation and regulatory changes for the rest.

  3. Resolved true Prediction 26 January 2025
    “It’s purely a question of choice, and I think the new administration’s going to do that.”

    Andreessen said energy independence and large net energy exports are a matter of choice, and that he thinks the new Trump administration will choose to pursue them.

  4. Mostly false Prediction 2 September 2023
    “they have a law that looks like it may pass as soon as October that effectively bans AI inside the Eu.”

    The EU may pass a law as soon as October 2023 that effectively bans AI inside the EU.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 2 September 2023
    “Look, you're going to have Chinese AI.”

    There will be Chinese AI systems that embody Communist ideology.

All of them

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