ClaimsDario Amodei

“I think my assessment of the risk is about what it was before, because the progress that I've seen has been about what I expected.”

Dario Amodei, Anthropic CEO, interviewed 28 February 2025 Hard Fork - Anthropic's C.E.O. Dario Amodei on Surviving the A.I. Endgame Transcript (Podscripts (Hard Fork)) archived copy

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Factual AI safety and alignment

Amodei's assessment of AI risk is about what it was before, as AI progress has been about what he expected.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

Reasoning

Concerns his own inner assessment of risk and expectations, not publicly testable.

Cite this claim

Dario Amodei, “Amodei's assessment of AI risk is about what it was before, as AI progress has been about what he expected.” (said 28 February 2025). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_8d80eb4d6a3f, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_8d80eb4d6a3f

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

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More factual claims by Dario Amodei

  1. Mostly true Factual 28 February 2025
    “So we did this experiment where we basically train the model to be all the good thing, helpful, honest, harmless, friendly.”

    Anthropic ran an experiment training a model to be helpful, honest, harmless and friendly.

  2. Resolved true Factual 28 February 2025
    “They're not yet at the stage where we think that there is a real and meaningful increase in the threat end to end,”

    Anthropic assessed that Claude 3.7 Sonnet is not yet at a stage giving a real and meaningful end-to-end increase in dangerous threat capability.

  3. Resolved true Factual 28 February 2025
    “10 to 25% referred to the chance of civilization getting substantially derailed, right?”

    Amodei's earlier 10 to 25% figure referred to the chance of civilization getting substantially derailed.

  4. Mostly true Factual 18 February 2025
    “this lack of understanding is essentially unprecedented in the history of technology.”

    The lack of understanding of how AI systems work is essentially unprecedented in the history of technology.

  5. Mostly true Factual 18 February 2025
    “We were able to provide a strong theoretical basis for having conviction that superposition was the right hypothesis to pursue.”

    Amodei said that "we" were able to provide a strong theoretical basis for having conviction that superposition was the right hypothesis to pursue; the surrounding text does not say who "we" refers to.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.