Moore's Law (shrinking transistors on integrated circuits) was the fifth paradigm, not the first, to provide exponential growth in computing.

Claim: in Kurzweil's framework, Moore's Law (shrinking transistors on integrated circuits) is the fifth, not the first, paradigm of exponential growth in computing, preceded by four earlier paradigms. True if Kurzweil's own writings/talks identify five successive computing paradigms with integrated-circuit transistor shrinking as the fifth, preceded by electromechanical, relay, vacuum tube, and discrete transistor stages (or equivalent four). Mostly true if the five-paradigm structure holds with a minor labeling discrepancy. Mixed if the count is ambiguous. Mostly false if his framework names a different number such that it is not the fifth. False if his documented account contradicts this entirely.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 the Kurzweil Library (essay: the Law of Accelerating Returns) the Kurzweil Library (writingsbyraykurzweil.com) · January 2001 Own record

   “This chart spans at least five distinct paradigms of computing, of which Moore’s Law pertains to only the latest one.”

2. E2 the Kurzweil Library (essay: the Law of Accelerating Returns) the Kurzweil Library (writingsbyraykurzweil.com) · January 2001 Own record

   “It is important to note that Moore’s Law of Integrated Circuits was not the first, but the fifth paradigm to provide accelerating price-performance.”

3. E3 Ray Kurzweil's Abstract Carnegie Mellon University (cs.cmu.edu, hosting Kurzweil's conference abstract) · 1 January 2009 Own record

   “From this exercise, it became apparent that the acceleration of computing power did not start with integrated circuits, but has continued through multiple paradigm shifts (electromechanical calculators, relays, vacuum tubes, transistors, and finally integrated circuits).”

4. E4 Technology in the 21st Century: an Imminent Intimate Merger the Kurzweil Library (thekurzweillibrary.com) · 14 May 2002 Own record

   “Moore’s Law is the fifth paradigm, not the first, to provide exponential growth for computing”

The criteria ask what Kurzweil's own framework says, so his published writings are the right evidence here. His 2001 essay 'The Law of Accelerating Returns' says Moore's Law of Integrated Circuits 'was not the first, but the fifth paradigm' and that it covers only the latest of at least five paradigms (E1, E2). His May 2002 essay says the same thing (E4). His abstract hosted at CMU lists the five in order: electromechanical calculators, relays, vacuum tubes, transistors and integrated circuits (E3). That matches the structure the criteria require.