ClaimsNassim Taleb

“In other words, treat 67 persons to cure 1.”

Nassim Taleb, interviewee 10 July 2017 Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Work, Slavery, the Minority Rule, and Skin in the Game (EconTalk) archived copy

Factual Science and research methods

For slightly hypertensive people, 67 persons must be treated to cure one.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge said mostly true; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judged as of 2017-07-10 against the medical evidence on treating mild hypertension. True: published trials or meta-analyses give a number needed to treat of about 67, for example within roughly 55–80, for a relevant outcome in mildly hypertensive people. Mostly true: the NNT reported is in a similar order of magnitude but somewhat off (roughly 40–100), or 'cure' loosely stands for preventing an adverse event. Mixed: the cited studies conflict, some near 67 and others far from it. Mostly false: the figure distorts the evidence, for example by applying a different population's NNT, or the actual NNTs are far higher or lower. False: the evidence shows an NNT far from 67 and no source supports the figure.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Some Benefit to Treating Mild Hypertension to Prevent Stroke, CV Deaths, and Overall Mortality American Family Physician (AAFP) · 1 December 2015

    “Other NNTs for the five years (95% CI) included: stroke = 173 (108 to 810); CV death = 95 (55 to 1,188); overall mortality = 99 (66 to 273); heart failure = not significant; and coronary events = not significant.”
  2. E2 Some Benefit to Treating Mild Hypertension to Prevent Stroke, CV Deaths, and Overall Mortality American Family Physician (AAFP) · 1 December 2015

    “They included studies that lasted at least one year and evaluated treatment of grade 1 hypertension (range = 140/90 mm Hg to 159/99 mm Hg) in patients with no previous cardiac disease.”
  3. E3 5 approved drugs that don’t measure up MDLinx · 17 January 2020

    “After up to 5 years of follow up, people with mild hypertension taking blood pressure medicine experienced no differences in mortality, cardiovascular events, coronary artery disease, or stroke”
  4. E4 5 approved drugs that don’t measure up MDLinx · 17 January 2020

    “In people receiving antihypertensive therapy for 5 years, the NNT to prevent 1 death is 125. Additionally, the NNT to prevent heart attack is 100, and to prevent stroke, 67.”

Reasoning

The evidence does not show that 67 comes from a different population: E4 gives 67 for stroke without saying which patients it covers, and it postdates the claim. E1 reports grade 1 hypertension NNTs of 95 (CV death) and 99 (overall mortality), with the CV-death interval including 67, so the evidence does not settle which verdict band applies.

Cite this claim

Nassim Taleb, “For slightly hypertensive people, 67 persons must be treated to cure one.” (said 10 July 2017). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_8cd2a115b2da, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_8cd2a115b2da

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.