All the listed predictions by others about when self-driving cars would arrive, whose dates have passed, turned out wrong so far.

Applies to the self-driving-car predictions by others that Brooks listed in his October 2023 post, whose target dates were on or before 21 October 2023. True if, for every such prediction, the predicted outcome (e.g. a named company offering fully driverless cars or a robotaxi service by the date) had not happened by that date. Mostly true if all but one minor prediction failed, or one was arguably met only in a narrow way. Mixed if several of the passed-date predictions came true. Mostly false if most came true. False if the evidence shows most or all of them were met.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 List of predictions for autonomous Tesla vehicles by Elon Musk - Wikipedia Wikipedia · 4 December 2024

   “AP/HW1 released Oct 2015 for highways[7]”

2. E2 List of predictions for autonomous Tesla vehicles by Elon Musk - Wikipedia Wikipedia · 4 December 2024

   “FSD beta wide release Nov 2022[a]”

3. E3 From self-driving cars in 2017 to a million robotaxis in 2020: Will the Cybercab be another one of Elon Musk’s unfulfilled promises? EL PAÍS English · 11 October 2024

   “But seven years later, they are still not ready.”

4. E4 Waymo is opening its fully driverless service to the general public in Phoenix Waymo · 8 October 2020

   “Beginning today, October 8, we’re excited to open up our fully driverless offering to Waymo One riders.”

5. E5 List of predictions for autonomous Tesla vehicles by Elon Musk - Wikipedia Wikipedia · 4 December 2024

   “| Dec 2015 | 2017 | "We're going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years." | No | [12] |”

6. E6 List of predictions for autonomous Tesla vehicles by Elon Musk - Wikipedia Wikipedia · 4 December 2024

   “| Oct 2014 | 2015 | "A Tesla car next year will probably be 90-percent capable of autopilot. Like, so 90 percent of your miles can be on auto. For sure highway travel." | AP/HW1 released Oct 2015 for highways[7] | [8][9] |”

7. E7 History of self-driving cars - Wikipedia Wikipedia

   “In December, Waymo launched the first commercial robotaxi called "Waymo One"; users in the Phoenix metropolitan area use an app to request a pick-up.”

8. E8 List of predictions for autonomous Tesla vehicles by Elon Musk - Wikipedia Wikipedia (citing CleanTechnica) · 4 December 2024

   “Ali, Iqtidar (November 28, 2022). "Tesla 'Full Self Driving' Beta Goes Out For Wide Release in North America". CleanTechnica.”

9. E9 CPUC Approves Permits for Cruise and Waymo To Charge Fares for Passenger Service in San Francisco California Public Utilities Commission · 10 August 2023

   “approved Resolutions granting additional operating authority for Cruise LLC and Waymo LLC to conduct commercial passenger service using driverless vehicles in San Francisco.”

10. E10 Predictions Scorecard, 2024 January 01 rodneybrooks.com (Rodney Brooks) · 1 January 2024 Own record

    “People may think this happened in San Francisco in 2023, but it didn't.”

11. E11 Elon Musk Predictions & Outcomes: 2019 to 2026 Hudson Labs · 23 July 2026

    “Tesla had no commercial robotaxi network in 2020.”

12. E12 Predictions Scorecard, 2020 January 01 rodneybrooks.com (Rodney Brooks) · 1 January 2020 Own record

    “None of the original predictions have come to pass, and those still standing are getting rather sparse.”

None of the evidence reproduces the list of predictions Brooks gave in his October 2023 post, so it can't be checked whether every passed-date prediction failed. Some Musk/Tesla predictions are recorded as unmet (E5, E11, E3), and one was partly met with highway Autopilot in 2015 (E6). Meanwhile, Waymo opened its fully driverless service to Waymo One riders in Phoenix in 2020 (E4), and in August 2023 Cruise and Waymo were granted additional operating authority to conduct commercial passenger service using driverless vehicles in San Francisco (E9). Those could match some predictions on the list, but the evidence doesn't show which ones were listed.