ClaimsWarren Buffett

“The mega-rich pay income taxes at a rate of 15 percent on most of their earnings but pay practically nothing in payroll taxes.”

Warren Buffett, NY Times op-ed author 15 August 2011 Warren Buffett NY Times Op-Ed: Stop Coddling the Super Rich (GuruFocus)

Factual Economics and markets

The mega-rich pay income taxes at 15 percent on most of their earnings but pay practically nothing in payroll taxes.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judge as of 2011-08-15 under U.S. tax law at the time. True: the data show that most income of the very highest earners was taxed at the 15% rate for capital gains and qualified dividends, and that payroll taxes (Social Security, capped at the wage base, plus Medicare) were a negligible share of their income. Mostly true: the core point holds, but 15% applied to a large share rather than to most income for this group, or effective rates differ slightly from 15%. Mixed: one of the two parts holds and the other does not. Mostly false: the mega-rich typically paid substantially higher effective income tax rates, with the 15% rate applying only to a minority of their income. False: both parts are contradicted by the data.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (5)

  1. E1 Fact-checking Warren Buffett Tax Foundation · 30 September 2011

    “But what I paid was only 17.4 percent of my taxable income — and that’s actually a lower percentage than was paid by any of the other 20 people in our office.”
  2. E2 Debunking the Obama-Buffett Myth on Taxes - Debunking the Obama-Buffett Myth on Taxes - U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee (Republican staff) · 28 September 2011

    “In 2009, 62.8% of all taxable income for those with adjusted gross incomes in excess of $1 million was taxed at the maximum statutory rate of 35% and another 25.5% was taxed at the long-term capital gains and qualified dividend rate of 15%.”
  3. E3 Buffett Rule needed to restore tax fairness - Economic Policy Institute Economic Policy Institute

    “The Internal Revenue Service Statistics of Income data show that in 2007, average effective income tax rates began falling for returns with adjusted gross income (AGI) above $2 million.”
  4. E4 Buffett Rule needed to restore tax fairness - Economic Policy Institute Economic Policy Institute

    “The 400 highest income returns—with more than $138.8 million in AGI—paid considerably less, with an average tax rate of just 16.6 percent.”
  5. E5 Buffett Rule needed to restore tax fairness - Economic Policy Institute Economic Policy Institute

    “Dividends and net capital gains accounted for 73.4 percent of AGI for these highest income 400 returns, explaining why their average effective tax rate is so close to the preferential 15 percent rates on unearned income.”

Reasoning

The evidence shows that the top 400 returns had an average income tax rate of 16.6 percent, with 73.4 percent of their AGI from dividends and capital gains [E4][E5]. For filers with AGI over $1 million, 62.8% of taxable income was taxed at 35% [E2]. No evidence item measures payroll taxes as a share of the very wealthy's income, so the evidence does not settle the claim under the criteria.

Cite this claim

Warren Buffett, “The mega-rich pay income taxes at 15 percent on most of their earnings but pay practically nothing in payroll taxes.” (said 15 August 2011). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_83b2df49aeb9, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_83b2df49aeb9

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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  3. Mixed Factual 15 December 2020
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  5. Resolved true Factual 15 December 2020
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All of them

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