U.S. mortgage origination volumes are still about 50% below long-term averages.
Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Judge as of 2026-08-12. The claim is that US mortgage origination volume is about 50% below its long-term average. Take recent annualised or 2025–2026 origination volume (dollar or unit) and compare it with a long-term average. True: origination is about 40–60% below the average for a reasonable long-term period. Mostly true: about 30–40% or 60–70% below. Mixed: origination is depressed but only about 20–30% below, or the result depends heavily on the measure or period chosen. Mostly false: origination is only modestly below (under about 20%). False: origination is at or above long-term averages.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
-
E1 United States Mortgage Originations Trading Economics (citing Federal Reserve Bank of New York) · 30 June 2026
“Mortgage Originations in the United States averaged 570.92 Billion USD from 2003 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 1217.80 Billion USD in the second quarter of 2021 and a record low of 285.72 Billion USD in the second quarter of 2014.”
-
E2 United States Mortgage Originations Trading Economics (citing Federal Reserve Bank of New York) · 30 June 2026
“Mortgage Originations in the United States decreased to 504.64 Billion USD in the second quarter of 2026 from 529.80 Billion USD in the first quarter of 2026.”
-
E3 Mortgage Origination Volume (Q2 2026): $504.6 billion American Default · 30 June 2026
“The New York Fed counted $504.6 billion for the second quarter of 2026, up from $458.3 billion in the second quarter of 2025.”
-
E4 Mortgage Origination Volume (Q2 2026): $504.6 billion American Default · 30 June 2026
“Of 94 quarters since 2003, it ranks 46th largest, in dollars not adjusted for inflation.”
Reasoning
New York Fed data via Trading Economics put US mortgage originations at $504.64 billion in Q2 2026 and $529.80 billion in Q1 2026 [E2]. The 2003–2026 quarterly average was $570.92 billion [E1], so recent volume is roughly 7–12% below that average, not about 50%. American Default ranks Q2 2026 46th of 94 quarters since 2003 in nominal dollars [E4], which puts it near the middle of the range, and it reports volume up from $458.3 billion a year earlier [E3]. These are nominal-dollar figures, and the evidence gives no inflation-adjusted or unit-based measure. On the measure available, origination is only modestly below its long-term average.
Cite this claim
Bill Ackman, “U.S. mortgage origination volumes are still about 50% below long-term averages.” (said 12 August 2026). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_811415dc13f3, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_811415dc13f3
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More factual claims by Bill Ackman
-
Resolved false
“the average life of an S&P 500 CEO is probably, I don’t know, 4 years or 3 years, 3 and a half years or something like this.”
-
Mostly true
“SpaceX is near monopoly in terms of low-cost space launch.”
-
Resolved true
“We created it out of the bankruptcy of General Growth.”
Howard Hughes was created out of the bankruptcy of General Growth as a spinoff of its other assets.
-
Resolved true
“2 years later, we emerged from Chapter 11.”
General Growth emerged from Chapter 11 two years after Pershing Square's investment.
-
Resolved true
“The company’s got a 4 billion dollar market cap, and the goal is to build it into a trillion-dollar thing over time, compounding.”
Howard Hughes Holdings has a market capitalisation of about $4 billion.
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.