ClaimsBill Gates

“By 2019, Gavi had helped vaccinate more than 760 million children and prevent 13 million deaths.”

Bill Gates, writing in annual letter section 10 February 2020 Why we swing for the fences (2020 Annual Letter) (Gates Notes) archived copy

Factual Biosecurity

By 2019, Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance had helped vaccinate more than 760 million children and prevent 13 million deaths.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge said mixed; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

The test is whether Gavi's own reported cumulative figures, as of the end of 2019 or the latest available by 2020-02-10, show more than 760 million children vaccinated (immunised) with Gavi support and about 13 million future deaths averted since Gavi was founded in 2000. True: Gavi's official figures (or a formal correction of them) show at least 760 million children and roughly 13 million deaths averted (12.5–13.5 million). Mostly true: one figure matches and the other is slightly off (children 720–760 million, or deaths 12–12.5 or 13.5–14 million), or the figures apply to a slightly different cut-off year. Mixed: one figure is broadly supported and the other is clearly wrong. Mostly false: both figures are clearly off but of the right order, or a figure describes something else (e.g. doses, or projections rather than achieved results). False: Gavi's records show figures far from both (more than 15% off each), or no such cumulative attribution to Gavi.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (1)

  1. E1 Annual Progress Report 2019 Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance

    “Since Gavi was established in 2000, its mission to save lives, reduce poverty and protect the world against the threat of epidemics has helped vaccinate more than 822 million children in 73 countries through the end of 2019 – preventing more than 14 million future deaths.”

Reasoning

Gavi's end-2019 report supports the children figure (more than 822 million) but gives more than 14 million future deaths prevented [E1]. That is at or beyond the edge of the mostly-true band in the criteria, and no evidence shows the claim's figures came from a different cut-off year. The evidence therefore does not clearly settle the claim at the stated verdict.

Cite this claim

Bill Gates, “By 2019, Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance had helped vaccinate more than 760 million children and prevent 13 million deaths.” (said 10 February 2020). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_7d30b4b2eb09, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_7d30b4b2eb09

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Bill Gates, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Bill Gates

  1. Mixed Factual February 2021
    “our partners have been applying the lessons we learned along the way to the development of vaccines against COVID-19.”

    Foundation partners have applied lessons from earlier foundation-backed vaccine work to developing COVID-19 vaccines.

  2. Mostly false Factual February 2021
    “Stress and isolation have triggered far-reaching impacts on mental health.”

    Stress and isolation during the pandemic have had far-reaching impacts on mental health.

  3. Resolved true Factual February 2021
    “We were thrilled to see the United States include $4 billion for Gavi in its latest COVID-19 relief package.”

    The United States included $4 billion for Gavi in its latest COVID-19 relief package.

  4. Mostly false Factual 10 February 2020
    “Thanks to major advances, an HIV-positive person receiving treatment now has the same expected lifespan as someone without HIV.”

    An HIV-positive person receiving treatment now has the same expected lifespan as someone without HIV.

  5. Mostly true Factual 10 February 2020
    “For example, we were optimistic that vaginal gels could help prevent infection, but they weren’t effective at stopping transmission of the disease.”

    Vaginal gels were not effective at stopping HIV transmission, despite the foundation's optimism that they could prevent infection.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.