On 2020-08-03 Rodney Brooks published a short blog post on how quickly accepted wisdom in science changes, with suggestions of possible radical scientific reorientations.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge said mostly true; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
True if a blog post by Rodney Brooks (e.g. on rodneybrooks.com) dated 2020-08-03 is short and discusses how quickly accepted scientific wisdom changes, and suggests possible upcoming radical reorientations in science. Mostly true if such a post exists and matches the content but its date is off by a day or two (for example because of time zones), or if it is not clearly 'short'. Mixed if a post from that date exists but covers only one of the two elements: how quickly accepted wisdom changes, or suggested reorientations. Mostly false if the matching post was published on a clearly different date, such as weeks away. False if the evidence shows Brooks published no such post around that date, for example if his blog archive for mid-2020 shows no post on this topic.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 How Much Things Can Change Rodney Brooks (rodneybrooks.com) · 3 August 2020 Own record
“This post is about how much things can change in the world over a lifetime. I’m going to restrict my attention to science, though there are many parallels in technology, human rights, and social justice.”
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E2 How Much Things Can Change Rodney Brooks (rodneybrooks.com) · 3 August 2020 Own record
“Not everything will change, but certainly some things that we treat as truth and obvious today will no longer seem that way by early next century.”
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E3 August 2020 – Rodney Brooks Rodney Brooks (rodneybrooks.com) · 3 August 2020 Own record
“August 3, 2020”
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E4 Wednesday 5 August, 2020 Memex (John Naughton's blog, naughtons.org) · 5 August 2020
“Things will continue to change. Below I have put a few things that I think could change from now into the beginning of the next century.”
Reasoning
The evidence shows a rodneybrooks.com post dated 3 August 2020 on how much accepted scientific truths can change, which predicts upcoming changes (E1, E2, E3). No evidence item shows whether the post is short, and the criteria require that for "true". The only independent item (E4) does not name Brooks or the post in its quote.
Cite this claim
Rodney Brooks, “On 2020-08-03 Rodney Brooks published a short blog post on how quickly accepted wisdom in science changes, with suggestions of possible radical scientific reorientations.” (said 3 August 2020). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_79d3fc4c7859, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_79d3fc4c7859
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More factual claims by Rodney Brooks
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Mostly true
“But no, I had no idea it would be LLMs at the time of my correct prediction that something big would appear.”
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Mostly true
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Resolved true
“I bought my first electric car this year.”
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Mixed
“they are safe in the presence of humans.”
The warehouse mobile robots built by Brooks's current startup are safe in the presence of humans.
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Mostly true
“I have reported about particular rides, that I or others have taken, when I think that the vehicles have done something for which a human driver would somehow be sanctioned if they had done the same…”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.